Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) has been one of the stars of the market for the last three months. From a low of below $100, CVX stock has climbed steadily to its present level of $115.6. Many companies climbed 15% in that amount of time, but not many are $200 billion market cap yield stocks.

Speculation that oil prices will stay strong in 2017 and increase the company’s margins has added $30 billion to the market cap and brought the yield on the $1.08 per share dividend down from 4.3% to 3.7%.

Analysts like InvestorPlace Contributor, Aaron Levitt continue to pound the table for the stock, saying the company is favorably leveraged to the price of crude, and that the new administration will be great for crude. There is even talk of a stock split.

But is the good news already in Chevron stock?

CVX Stock: The Good News on Crude

Chevron management is buying the good news on crude, and will spend $19.8 billion this year, plus similar amounts through the Trump administration, extracting oil, much of it from the Permian Basin, where it can reportedly get margins of $38 per barrel on $66 oil. Trading profits may also resume with the re-opening of its LNG plant in Australia.

All this is well-known, however. Most analysts have a target price of $125 per share for the stock, and it’s more than halfway there.

CVX is due to report earnings on Jan. 27, and analysts are expecting it to earn 63 cents per share. That compares to a loss of 31 cents per share a year ago, but it’s still not going to match that $1.08 per share dividend. Chevron stock hasn’t come close to matching its dividend with earnings since the September quarter of 2015.

The bull case is that, since CVX is leveraged to crude, it could have as big a swing up now as it had down before. The crude bust cut revenue 40%, from over $230 billion down to $129 billion in 2015, and even optimists doubt the good fourth quarter will take that higher than $120 billion for 2016.

While Chevron is classed as an international oil major, in other words, analysts and speculators are treating it like a speculative domestic production company.

Crude Is Fickle

The company’s decisions over the last few years to get out of renewables and focus on crude production have set it up for big gains, assuming crude prices continue to strengthen.

But as anyone in the oil trading pits will tell you, this is speculative. Over the last year, the price of West Texas Intermediate — the U.S. standard — has risen sharply, from $36 per barrel up to $53, but the price has been far from level. Prices had reached the low-50s twice in the last year, only to pull back quickly to the low-40s when supply rushed in.

Oil bulls are pointing to declining output from China and a recent deal by OPEC that will limit supplies through mid-year as reasons for confidence. But the world is filled with suppliers desperate for cash — OPEC now offers just 40% of world production — and many U.S. companies have learned to profit at current price levels, meaning they could increase pumping if prices rise further.

Remember, too, that Chevron’s rosy scenario is based on a $66 per barrel price. That’s well above where it is now, and bulls have not considered the impact on global growth, or efficiency, of such an increase. There is, in short, a thumb being held on the price scale. Efficiency, and new supplies of renewable power from cheap solar and wind supplies, could keep the rosy scenario from happening.

The Bottom Line on Chevron Stock

The bottom line here is not that the CVS stock bulls are wrong, but that investors have a right to be cautious. If you have been in Chevron stock since November, you’re sitting on a fat gain, but there are no guarantees. A lot of good news is already priced into CVX stock, and any failure to deliver could hit the stock price hard.

Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of the sci-fi novella Into the Cloud, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned no shares in companies covered in this story.