Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE:CHK) is losing momentum again. After a roaring rebound in 2016, CHK stock declined sharply to start 2017. Shares slipped from as high as $8 to just $5 even. A rally in oil and natural gas lifted CHK stock back to $6 a month ago, but shares are heading back toward the lows of the year now.

Longs suggest that investors merely need to be patient with Chesapeake Energy. Skeptics, however, suggest that the turnaround has run out of gas. Let’s take a look at the arguments.

CHK Stock Cons

Oil & Natural Gas Are Trending Lower: Chesapeake had a real chance of going bankrupt in 2016. The company’s stock traded under $2 at one point, and its bonds traded down sharply, suggesting serious wipeout risk.

However, the company avoided disaster in large part due to a changing energy environment. Natural gas exploded higher, moving from multiyear lows below $2 to as high as the low $4’s. Oil played along, rallying from $27 to the mid-$50s. The prices of Chesapeake’s main products literally doubled.

Those gains are now fading though. Natural gas is highly seasonal, and this isn’t a peak time of year for the commodity. Still, the recent price action is troubling. Natural gas is down from its peak above $4 to just $3.20 now. Production figures have driven the decline; low prices didn’t hit supply as much as bulls had hoped. Oil, while its decline has been less violent, has lost ground. Oil is down from $55 to under $50 now as the OPEC pop wears off.

Huge Debtload: Chesapeake has a terrible balance sheet. The company averted bankruptcy last year, but it’s not out of the woods yet. The company’s enterprise value — a figure which includes its debt — is a massive $15 billion. But its market cap is less than $5 billion. That means the vast majority of Chesapeake’s investors own bonds rather than CHK stock.

Given that Chesapeake is unprofitable at current energy prices, it has a real problem. It won’t have cash on hand to pay off its bonds as they reach maturity. A rise in energy prices would help, but the bigger lever to solve this issue is either more asset sales or stock issuance. Asset sales are problematic, given the current lack of enthusiasm for oil and gas properties. Thus, you’re likely to see Chesapeake sell a ton of stock to raise cash. Given the disparity between the company’s debt (huge) and market cap (small), it would have to issue prodigious amounts of stock, diluting existing shareholders massively to fund its obligations this way.

No Catalyst: There is little on the horizon that supports the idea of a quick rally in CHK stock. The company isn’t likely to be free cash flow positive until 2018 (or later). It will make little-to-no accounting profit either.

The company’s good assets are encumbered. The recent move to raise the maximum number of authorized shares suggests management intends to flood the market with up to 1.1 billion new shares of CHK stock. Oil and gas are trending downward. CHK stock won’t pay a dividend for years, if ever. If you own the stock here, you’re speculating on favorable asset sales and little else, as there’s hardly anything that makes this a must-own position in the context of this year in particular.

CHK Stock Pros

Wunderlich Likes CHK Stock: Jason Wangler of Wunderlich Securities likes CHK stock. Quite a bit in fact. He has a $10 price target, and reiterated his optimism recently. Wangler finds the company’s recent pivot toward growth exciting, and suggests that new asset development efforts are paying off. There is particular reason to be excited about Niobrara, as a new Chesapeake well there is producing a solid 1,650 barrels of energy a day there.

Before getting too excited though, keep in mind that Wangler has rated the stock 12 times over the years, and has maintained a constant buy rating on the firm from 2013 onward. An investor following his buy recommendations lost as much as 90% of their money from his buy call at $30 to the low. And Tipranks’ data shows Wangler to be among the worst professional analysts out there in terms of accuracy. Still, any positive commentary beats nothing at all in terms of supporting the stock.

So Does Stifel Nicolaus: Karl Chalabala of Stifel Nicolaus is also a fan of CHK stock. And unlike Mr. Wangler, Chalabala doesn’t have any track record with Chesapeake. His buy rating published March 23 was an initiation, as he launched coverage of the firm.

Chalabala arrived at the same $10 price target as Wunderlich. If these two guys are right, CHK stock has almost 100% upside from today’s price. Chalabala specifically said that Chesapeake has: “multiple top-tier breakeven economic assets, a company-wide technology revolution that foreshadows further productivity gains […] as well as a compelling valuation — we believe Chesapeake shares are poised to outperform.”

I’d question if the words “top-tier” and “breakeven” belong in the same sentence. I tend to invest in companies whose best assets perform better than breakeven. However, if the nebulous technology revolution comes through, CHK stock skeptics such as myself could end up eating crow.

Turnaround Narrative: Chesapeake’s current economic situation is lousy. However, you can’t deny that the company’s outlook has greatly improved over the past year. A year ago, bankruptcy threatened. Now, the company can talk with credibility of breaking even on free cash flow in 2018 (if you look past the built-in optimistic assumption of $60 oil for next year).

The company has improved its balance sheet enough to get the debt problem out of the spotlight. The upcoming barrage of new stock issuances will further shore up the company’s cash position. Chesapeake has survived, and now positive developments with energy prices, new earning assets or asset sales could further cement the idea that Chesapeake has turned the corner.

Verdict on Chesapeake Energy

I don’t understand the logic of buying CHK stock here. At all. The bull case is flimsy, and the analysts supporting the stock hardly help matters. Yes, the company avoided bankruptcy, but that doesn’t mean it’s inherently a great deal now. The company has never proven its business model to be particularly viable; even prior to the 2014 oil meltdown, Chesapeake never produced much economic profit. Merely surviving with breakeven assets while selling stock and assets to raise cash hardly justifies a $4.7 billion market cap. As another InvestorPlace author recently put it, CHK stock is still a “massive risk,” and you get only a modest reward even if things go well.

At the time of this writing, Ian Bezek had no position in CHK stock. You can reach him on Twitter at @irbezek.