If you are a trader, you will never find a time for riches like today. There has never been a better time to trade the market. Professional day traders and amateurs alike can make huge profits with the current environment as crazy as it has been.
All you have to do is ride the coattails of the market, whatever the direction, and profits will follow.
Take Morgan Stanley (MS), for example. Traders could make an entire year of profits on this one stock alone. Over the last week, rumors regarding MS’s survival resurfaced. The speculation centered on a capital infusion from Mitsubishi that had yet to close. (See also: "Morgan Stanley: Gentleman, Place Your Wagers!")
In three trading days last week, MS lost nearly half already substantially reduced value. Then over the weekend, the deal closed under new terms and MS gained almost 100% in one day.
Any trader riding those waves would have profited handsomely.
For whatever reason, trading the market has gotten a bum rap. In the wake of the dot com crash when many traders lost their shirts, many professional pundits and gurus suggested that trading was dead.
Maybe it was, but like most things the pendulum swung too far to the buy and hold approach. Now, buy and hold investors are the ones getting killed and trading is coming back in vogue.
As well it should be. When stocks move in one direction by double digit percentages, the profit to be made greatly exceeds the cost of the trade and tax consequences thereof. The volatility in the market is unprecedented.
On Monday the market gained over 11% with the Dow moving over 900 points higher. Place your trade when the market opens up 400 points, and then it jumps another 500 points—it is really quite simple.
On the heels of a 20% loss last week, these gyrations are a traders dream. All that is necessary is being on the right side of the trade.
For that, investors have plenty of tools at their disposal. At investorplace.com, there are several investing experts offering trading services that can give you the edge in the market. I highly encourage you to check out any or all of these services.
As for myself, my tendency is to buy and hold stocks with some combination of long or short positions. I’m usually reluctant to trade and will only do so under unique conditions where volatility is such to provide an advantage.
That being said, I have a remarkable track record for trading and timing the market. In 2002, I stayed in cash for much of the year as the market deteriorated under the weight of the last recession.
On October 9, 2002 I went long and leveraged with the belief that the market was extremely oversold. With my portfolio invested at 150% long stocks, I was well positioned to take advantage of the recovery in stocks that ensued.
What about this week? Well, I moved to 75% cash in the week after the Lehman collapse. That move saved my portfolio much pain. In addition, I stuck to my one short position.
That short, a bet against oil and gas stocks, paid very well as oil dropped below $80. I sold half that position right at the peak. I should have sold the entire position as it gave up more than 35% of the gains (keep in mind that the trade is still positive by more than 100%).
So where should a trader go now?
The rally on Monday was nice, but I do not see how the move can be sustained in the short run. There may very well be plenty of reasons to buy stocks now, but the headwinds of earnings season will make it difficult to move much higher. (See also: "Is it Time to Buy?")
Place your trades accordingly.
After earnings season and the election passes in early November, I expect a powerful year end rally that will last until mid-December. Hedge fund managers and other institutional investors will be pressured to buy stocks in hopes of squeezing out gains that can erase losses earlier in the year.
By mid-December, selling will return as investors will be looking to lock in losses for tax purposes or lock in gains to avoid higher taxes that will surely come in 2009. At the end of the year, I would expect us to be trading very close to the lows that we saw last week.
Traders can use this roadmap as a guide for their trades and direction thereof over the next two months or so. Once you have the direction pegged, it is fairly easy to pick the most volatile stocks and trade in the direction that they are moving after the open.
The moves will be sharp, but that is what makes this a unique opportunity for traders. Buy and hold investors should step aside for now. Trading is back!
This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com.