Apple (AAPL) is set to release third-quarter earnings on Monday, October 19. What to expect?

How about another blowout quarter? Here are three reasons Apple should be very good to shareholders next week:

Easier year-over-year comparisons: Think about where the economy was at this time last year. The financial crisis was in full swing, and doomsday headlines sent consumers running for cover. We still have some problems this year, but by comparison, the third quarter of 2009 will be a cake walk.

Surging iPhone sales: It took a whole three days for Apple to sell 1 million of its new 3GS iPhone this summer. Sales have continued to accelerate since this new smar tphone’s debut in June, and that should really kick up Apple’s profits.

iPod and iTunes dominance: Apple scored a runaway hit with its digital music players and online music store, and that has helped the company build a strong foundation for sales and earnings. Nobody even comes close to Apple in this lucrative segment of the entertainment market.

To be completely candid, I haven’t been that impressed with Apple’s previous quarterly earnings, but the new iPhone release this summer has added to AAPL’s earnings momentum. This bodes very well for Q3 numbers, and in the long term, I expect holiday sales to be quite strong and to continue this trend of strong earnings.

It is also important to note that CEO Steve Jobs’ health is no longer a mystery and making shareholders nervous, and that institutional buying pressure has picked up.

Recently, UBS analyst Maynard Um upgraded Apple to “Buy” from “Neutral” and raised his target price on the shares to $265 from $170. Additionally, Morgan Stanley analyst Kathryn Huberty recently set a $210 price target for Apple.

In the past three months, the analyst community has revised its consensus earnings estimates 8.6% higher, which usually precedes future earnings surprises. Apple has averaged a 13.4% earnings surprise in recent quarters, so I expect another spectacular showing on Monday, October 19.

My target for Apple earnings this quarter: $1.60 per share.

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