BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (BCRX) has traded higher and actually held the bulk of its gains today, despite the slide in the stock market. 

Propelling the stock is a development in the fight against H1N1 or swine flu.  BioCryst’s own intravenous experimental drug, peramivir, was given a “emergency use authorization” by the FDA.  This approval was also said to be given in response to a request from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  The emergency use authorization for peramivir is not for everyone and pertains to certain adult and pediatric patients who have been admitted into the hospital with confirmed or suspected 2009 H1N1 influenza (swine flu).

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Unfortunately, that means that BioCryst will likely only be a huge beneficiary from this approval if there is a wide outbreak causing the hospitals to be flooded.  Peramavir is still not under any formal wide-use approval and is not being administered as a mass vaccine or as a mass treatment for infection.  That is too bad because if you have tried to get a seasonal flu shot vaccine or even a H1N1 flu shot vaccine, there is a statistical probability that you can’t find the vaccine or that it is harder to find than in prior years. 
  
By the time most people decide they have to go to the hospital, they are usually already very ill. BioCryst is likely to see an immediate financial boost from this.  

Based upon the financial history at the company, every little bit will help.  The company generated a mere $56.561 million in 2008 revenues, and that figure is down from $71.238 million in its reported 2007 revenues.  Thomson Reuters consensus revenue estimates from Wall Street are not comprised of enough estimates to offer much direct data. Those estimates are only $23.71 million for 2009 revenues and $51.29 million for 2010.  So any additional revenue can make things look much better.

BioCryst has reportedly given 1,200 courses of peramivir to Health and Human Services.  The company does anticipate more orders from the U.S. and internationally and is producing another 130,000 doses.  The company has noted that it can make more doses if needed.  The unknown here is if it can deliver on them.

The stock is still up over 10% at $10.68 today.  But it is a highly-volatile stock with a 52-week trading range of $0.85 to $13.47.  Today’s news is very much a positive, but the real boost will come if and when peramivir if given a full FDA approval for much wider use.  And if it turns out the swine flu is marginalized or minimized this year, then today’s gains are just trading gains instead of investment gains.

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