Today’s release of OPEC’s monthly market report for February highlights something that has been true for a long time now. The price OPEC receives for a barrel of oil jumped about $5/barrel since February 1 to close at $77.38/barrel yesterday.

Events in Europe, particularly the financial problems in Greece, kept the price low in the first half of the month, but improving economic data and the rise in stock prices have given the price of crude a bump in the last half of the month. The weak global economic recovery, as the OPEC report points out, is “mostly supported by the governmental-led stimulus.”

That is not particularly good news for OPEC, nor for the rest of us for that matter. In the U.S., the outlook for a V-shaped recovery dwindles as consumers continue to hold on to their money. During the second half of 2009, when the effects of the nearly $800 billion stimulus package were supposed to be at their height, growth in final sales topped out at 1.8%.

At that rate, a U-shaped recovery in the US is probably the best we can hope for, and odds favoring a double-dip recession (a W-shaped recovery) increase. In the face of projections like these, OPEC’s estimate that global oil consumption will rise in 2010 by 900,000 barrels/day seem a bit pollyanish. After all, the very weak economic recovery has so far produced few new jobs and without jobs, consumer confidence and spending simply can’t increase.

What effect, then, will OPEC’s new oil consumption estimate have on the price of crude, and ultimately on the global economic recovery? So far today, crude prices have see-sawed, first down, then up, now down again but not as far. The driving force behind the price swings appears to be the news that China’s exports grew a staggering 46% year-over-year in February.

Chinese officials have set a GDP growth target for 2010 of 8.7%, a target they are almost certain to exceed. As the Chinese economy continues to grow, demand for oil to fuel that growth will also increase. China and India, not the US, are now driving the growth in crude oil consumption.

What worries OPEC is that China’s economy will overheat, driving inflation and forcing the government to restrict lending even further than it already has. If the Chinese economy slows down, then OPEC’s production, already above its agreed quotas, will exceed market demand even further.

OPEC’s latest estimates are not likely to cause much of a jump in crude prices because OPEC production still exceeds projected demand by about 1.5 million barrels/day. Non-OPEC production is also rising, and on a purely fundamental basis these two facts together should work to lower crude prices. A somewhat stronger US dollar should also contribute to lower prices.

If additional economic stimulus packages are enacted in the U.S. and elsewhere, that would be good news for OPEC because the cartel would be certain to carve off a nice chunk of the money for itself. Boosting OPEC profits is essentially the bribe the global economy has to pay because of its dependence on oil.

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