Toyota Motors (TM) is expected to sell 182,100 new cars in March, up more than 32% from March 2009, and up a whopping 82% from February 2010, according to Edmunds.com. General Motors sales for March are predicted to be 22% higher than a year ago and 39% higher than last month. Ford Motor Co. (F) should see a nearly 50% increase from a year ago and a 43% jump from last month. March sales comparisons are adjusted to account for an additional sales day in March 2010.

Trailing the pack is Chrysler, predicted to sell 10% fewer cars than last year, though up nearly 12% from February sales figures.

The impact of incentives and what Edmunds.com calls “more balanced headlines” are driving Toyota sales. Toyota appears to be leveraging its long-standing position as a quality leader. Its March incentive pricing isn’t hurting sales either.

TrueCar.comreports that Toyota is offering incentives totaling $2,318 in March, lower than the $2,826 offered by Ford, the $3,351 offered by GM, and the $3,491 offered by Chrysler. Overall, the auto industry is expected to offer incentives totaling $2.86 billion in March alone.

Chrysler has actually lowered incentives by nearly 2% from February, and not because their cars are selling better without them. The drop is almost certainly due to Chrysler’s inability to keep up the pace.

In February, Chrysler reported a tiny gain in sales compared with February 2009, but a very large drop in inventory, from 350,966 units in February 2009 to just 197,080 units this year.

The company is caught between a rock and hard place. It’s selling fewer cars for less revenue per car, stifling its ability to build up its inventory. Matching Toyota’s incentives has resulted in the boost in month-over-month sales, but unless the car companies can come up with something else to lure customers, the sales jump won’t last more than another month or maybe two.

That’s due to the car makers selling down their inventory, and not having the selection available to picky customers. Chrysler will feel the effects of this more than the other makers because the company shut down many dealerships in an effort to avoid liquidation.

Chrysler is just not in a position to compete successfully for sales with Toyota, Ford, or even GM. About the only thing that would really make a difference is another federal bailout. And the chances of that are remote indeed.

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