We keep hearing about volatility at every turn these days. On TV, in print, on Twitter, you name it. There’s no question that there’s a perception of volatility out there. And there’s certainly fear of it, as evidenced by high premiums for VIX futures, heavy skew toward put options, and the apparent desire around the Street to hedge against “tail risk.”

But this all begs a question: Are things actually as volatile as we think?

I like to use 10-day historical volatility (HV) as a measure to feel actual stock volatility in the here and now. Sure it’s noisy, as one big day can skew number. But by the same token, one big day can guide our impression of volatility.

Below is the 10-day HV for the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) for the past six months.

The vertical lines delineate months, so as you can see we have basically hovered between 20 and 25 for July. That’s the higher end of “normal,” but far from extreme. For example, we shot up to the high 30s in May.

To put this number in context, you can divide it by 16 to translate it into a typical range for SPY. In other words, let’s call this number 24. Divide that by 16 and you get 1.5. That says roughly 68% of trading days will see a range of 1.5% or less in SPY. That sounds about right lately. High? Yes. Scary? It’s really not.

Now look at this chart of SPY with Bollinger bands, Bollinger band width and average true range (ATR).

Bollinger band width will pick up longer-term trends. In other words the day-to-day market may not look that volatile, but if all the moves are in the same direction, Bollinger band width would expand. But, as you can see, it’s generally tapering off, kind of at the middle levels for the past half year.

ATR is very similar to HV, though it can yield different results. In this case, though, it doesn’t. Again, perhaps higher than normal, but not exactly spiking and considerably off the May highs.

Or, perhaps, look at the SPY chart itself. Again, that’s kind of mixed. We’ve hovered between $106 and $110 or so for all of July. Go out two months and it’s a round trip within a range, too, albeit a wider one.

All in all, we certainly face an above average level of volatility, but not a particularly cosmic one. Fear is excessive and overpriced, but not entirely unwarranted.

Follow Adam Warner on Twitter @agwarner.

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