This first week of the earnings season is more like a pre-season. You have Alcoa (NYSE: AA) leading things off today and then Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) toward the end of the week.  In the middle?  Not much.  And what there is doesn’t trade much option volume.

So we’re looking out to next week, when the real action starts (even though it’s a four-day week) with Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), Citigroup (NYSE: C), eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), General Electric (NYSE: GE), and several other heavy hitters on the schedule. Among those starting things off on Tuesday morning is online brokerage heavyweight TD Ameritrade Holding (NASDAQ: AMTD).

Analysts expect AMTD to earn a penny more than it did in the same quarter last year.  That may not sound like much, but it takes on a different hue given that AMTD has not experienced any year-over-year earnings growth since July, 2008.  This probably is due to the economy finally moving forward, coaxing investors off the sidelines and back into the market. This trend should continue, allowing AMTD and other brokerages to begin showing substantial profit growth.

The stock has been on a tear for the past four months, gaining around 35% off the August low. Currently, the shares appear to be struggling with the $20 level.  However, a decent earnings report should push the stock past this resistance.  The shares have done well after recent reports, averaging more than a 3% gain during the first week after the past two reports.

Sentiment is definitely a factor in this trade. With high short interest (short-interest ratio just below 9.0) and only half the covering analysts rating AMTD a “buy,” the stock could benefit from unwinding pessimism (i.e., short squeeze and/or analyst upgrades), especially if earnings and the outlook come through.

Look for the stock to pop above resistance at the $20 level after AMTD reports Tuesday morning.  Buy the AMTD Feb 20 Call in the range of 75 cents to leverage the expected move.