Live on the Edge With Leveraged Silver ETFs

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Looking for the ultimate high-beta play on the risk-on/risk-off trade? Right now, you need search no further than leveraged silver ETFs.

By now, it’s no secret that stocks have been trading with increasingly tight correlations for most of September. Previously, investors could at least look to gold and silver — and the related equities — for a hiding place, but now these too have started marching in lockstep with the market. This has been bad news for anyone who came into last week with a long position in these areas, but it spells opportunity for those with fresh capital to deploy.

Here’s why: While gold has been garnering most of the attention, silver has been one of the most volatile investments of the past week. More so than the broader equity market, gold or even silver-related shares, the white metal has been the ultimate barometer of this risk-on/risk-off market. From its intraday high on Sept. 2 through its low Monday morning, the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV) fell 35.2%. The S&P 500 was calm in comparison, losing only 6% in the same interval. In other words, if you have a view on the broader equity market and are looking for a way to trade it, right now these silver ETFs are the best way to put your idea into action.

Not surprisingly, the wildest price action has been in the two-times silver ETFs, ProShares Ultra Silver (NYSE:AGQ) and ProShares UltraShort Silver (NYSE:ZSL). Consider the moves in ZSL during the past seven trading days. After opening at $12.25 on Sept. 19, the ETF soared to $22.13 at its high on Monday, only to fall back to $14.42 in the first minutes of trading Tuesday. AGQ, for its part, surged from its Monday low of $96.75 to a high point of $129.24 on Tuesday morning. Clearly, these leveraged silver ETFs are providing the most bang for your buck in terms of beta.

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Since even short-term trades need to be made in the context of the longer-term picture, it pays to look at the broader environment for AGQ and ZSL.

A clue has to what happens next might lie in the spring correction of late April to early May. During that phase, SLV fell 30% in its initial downturn, gave investors a three-day head fake, then went to a new low that concluded with a 33.4% peak-to-trough move. The subsequent rally carried SLV to a gain of about 15% in the next 12 sessions. However, silver gave back its gains and SLV still was hovering around its mid-May low six weeks later.

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This time, however, both the fundamental and technical background are different. First, the slowing economy points to weaker industrial demand for silver in the months ahead — a weaker outlook than that which existed in the spring. Second, the initial downward move was larger this time: 35.2% versus 30%. Third, and most notably, silver still was firmly above its 200-day moving average even at its mid-May low. Now, silver has plunged below its 200-day MA for the first time in more than a year. The last time SLV plummeted under its 200-day MA this quickly (in late 2008), it took a full seven months to move back into bullish territory:

The lesson here is that while precious metals continue to benefit from the policies of currency debasement being pursued by the world’s governments, we’re now in a spot where bear market trading is in order. This means using these ETFs for the phenomenal source of beta that they are, but be ready to play both sides of the market, use tight stops and don’t hesitate to take profits quickly.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/09/leveraged-silver-etfs-beta-metal/.

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