6 Under-the-Radar Charts to Watch

Advertisement

As anyone who is involved in the markets is undoubtedly aware, it’s a tough time to find compelling ideas. Sure, any number of stocks look undervalued right now, but how can you pull the trigger on a buy order when any morning might bring a new chapter in the European crisis? The result is that correlations have moved near record highs, and finding charts that don’t mirror the S&P 500 is a tall order.

There are, however, a few charts that are notable for their divergence from the stock market’s performance and their importance as indicators of both sentiment and the global economic outlook. Below are six to put on your watch list and monitor closely for signs of a breakdown. The direction of these securities could provide a clue as to the next move for the broader global financial markets.

Emerging Markets

First up are the charts of two key emerging-market segments: Brazil and Chinese real estate. The Brazilian stock market has long been a leading indicator for astute investors, and it is all the more important today given the importance of the emerging-markets economies to the global growth outlook. Significantly, the iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF (NYSE:EWZ) is perched right on long-term support near the $60 level. Below lies a technical no-man’s land that could provide the fuel for a more serious selloff if the EWZ can’t hold its ground here:

Perhaps even more important is the technical status of a lesser-known exchange-traded fund called the Guggenheim China Real Estate ETF (NYSE:TAO). According to etftrends.com, the fund “tries to reflect the performance of the AlphaShares China Real Estate Index, which holds publicly traded companies and real estate investment trusts (REITs) that generate a majority of their revenues from real estate development, management and/or ownership of property in China, Hong Kong and Macau.”

While the ETF itself is small, with under $30 million in assets and a daily average trading volume of only about 38,000 shares, one could argue that the sector it represents is one of the most important to the global economy. China’s real estate market is generally seen as being in a bubble, and the bursting of that bubble would have serious ramifications for the rest of the world. That’s why investors need to watch this ETF for a breakdown below its support level at $15. As is the case with EWZ, the last volume below this support was registered more than two years ago.

Industrial Metals

This area also contains two charts nearing important inflection points. While most investors are infatuated with what’s going on with gold, anyone who fails to pay close attention to the copper and silver charts might miss a more important story. Below are the charts of iPath Dow Jones UBS Copper Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE:JJC) and the iShares Silver Trust ETF (NYSE:SLV). JJC is nearing the critical $50 level, which once was its resistance and has since become its support. SLV, meanwhile, is approaching its one-year trend line and isn’t far from its 200-day moving average, which sat at about $34.89 at the close of Thursday’s trading. These are both key charts, since they are a measure of both industrial demand and speculative demand. It’s possible stocks could move higher even if these two charts break down, but that’s a long-shot bet.

Other Commodities

Metals aren’t the only commodities that warrant a place on investors’ watch lists. Both PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (NYSE:DBC) and United States Brent Oil Fund (NYSE:BNO) have reached critical levels in recent days. DBC — which tracks a basket of energy, metals and agricultural commodities — is exhibiting a series of lower lows and closed Thursday just under its 200-day moving average. At $29.11, the ETF is just 3.7% away from its support at $28.

BNO, like the China real estate ETF, is small — with $46 million in assets and average trading volume of 88,000 shares — but it’s worth watching nonetheless. Brent is a good indicator of global economic health, since it is used as the basis for pricing of a much larger percentage of the world’s oil than West Texas Intermediate, the “oil price” typically quoted in the United States. Right now, the BNO chart is somewhat vulnerable. Like DBC, it features lower lows and proximity to both its 200-day moving average and its support level of about $70.

This discussion isn’t intended as a bearish call on the global markets. If we’ve learned anything this year, it’s that the charts have an infinite capacity to surprise us with moves that defy the traditional rules of technical analysis. Instead, consider these as key indicators of which way the S&P could emerge from its current trading range of 1,100-1,225.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/09/stock-charts-emerging-markets-brazil-china-etf/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC