Inflation Pressures Likely to Put Brakes on Any Treasury Rally

The iShares Lehman 20+ Year Bond ETF (NYSE:TLT) seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index. The TLT gives you a way to play the long end of the Treasury curve in a securities account.

The fund generally invests at least 90% of its assets in the bonds of the index and at least 95% of its assets in U.S. government bonds. The underlying index includes all publicly issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity of greater than or equal to 20 years, are rated investment-grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value.

While the Fed has been the buyer of nearly all the longer-dated Treasuries since Operation Twist was announced in September, longer-term rates have actually crept higher since that time. TLT moved up to $124 at the time of the Operation Twist announcement, only to fall back to the present level around $117 in Tuesday’s trading.

Given the unrelenting money-printing now going on both here and overseas, inflation will most likely continue to creep higher, putting a strong headwind in a further rally in longer-term Treasuries.

Technically, TLT has a gap to fill at the $110 level, which was the early September breakout level when rumors of Operation Twist began to rumble in earnest. I’m looking for TLT to head back to $110 by March 2012 options expiration.

Based on TLT’s current market price of $115.72 and using a target price of $110, a target date of March 16, 2012, and $10,000 of investment capital, this is an excellent candidate for making some short-term options gains.

To play this with options, visit TradingBlock.com, create a free Instant Login and try the TradeBuilder feature. Input the ticker, target price and date, and investment amount, and you’ll see several ways to trade that include selling a March call spread, buying a March put spread, or selling the stock. Best of all, you can see a potential profit-and-loss outline for each strategy.

Create your free login, and get access to these TLT option trading strategies by visiting the TradeBuilder here.

Tim spent 13 years as Chief Options Strategist at Man Securities in Chicago, four years as Lead Options Strategist at ThinkorSwim and three years as a Market Maker for First Options in Chicago. Tim makes weekly appearances on Bloomberg TV  “Options Insight”, Business First AM “Trader Talk”, TD Ameritade Network “Morning Trade Live” and CBOE-TV “Vol 411” to discuss everything from volatility and option related.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/11/tlt-inflation-pressures-likely-to-put-brakes-on-any-treasury-rally/.

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