The Stock Market Will Be Fine (Sooner Than You Think)

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Does the stock market have you freaked out right now? At one point on Wednesday, the S&P 500 was in the hole by 4.4% for the week so far, and yesterday’s low of 1820.66 was a chilling 9.8% dip from the Sept. 19 peak. It’s the kind of selloff that can really prompt fears of the worst-case scenario, and get traders acting accordingly by getting them out of stocks altogether.

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If that’s you, here’s a piece of advice: Don’t do it.

As terrifying as it all seems/feels, this is nothing more than a normal bull market correction. In fact, it might already be over, or very close to over. Getting out now would be the worst time to fervently reduce your exposure to stocks.

With that as the backdrop, here are three reasons why investors need not panic about what’s going on all around them. That’s not to say no action is needed, but there’s a difference between thinking strategically and panicking.

The latter almost always leads to mistakes.

This Isn’t the Beginning of a Bear Market

Most investors innately know a small market correction isn’t the same thing as a full-blown bear market. In the heat of the moment, though, it’s difficult to remember the two aren’t one and the same. Consider this a reminder.

There’s proof of the premise too. That proof comes in the form of a rising earnings trend that’s plausibly expected to last through 2015. The current year’s bottom line for the S&P 500 is on pace to grow 10.6% from 2013’s levels, and next year’s earnings growth is projected to hit 14.7%. If earnings are rising, stocks will follow … in the long run. The “in the meantime” volatility we’re suffering right now is just a recalibration.

S&P 500 Earnings

The S&P 500 Dropped a Huge Reversal Hint on Wednesday

While the S&P 500 and other indices were deep in the red around midday Wednesday, stocks actually reclaimed the bulk of what had been lost on an intraday basis. Specifically, the S&P 500 had been down as much as 3% at one point, but closed with only a loss of 0.8% for the session.

That’s a big change of heart.

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101514-sp500-smallThat intraday swing in itself is telling, particularly when coupled with a massive spike in volume. Jointly, what it tells us is any nervous investors who had been hanging on through Tuesday were finally flushed out on Wednesday, hence the new and deep-cutting multiweek low.

Yet for nearly every seller on Wednesday, a buyer came out of the woodwork. The volume on the way back up later in the day was just as strong as it was on the way down, hinting that there actually are a lot of buyers waiting on the sidelines.

Nothing’s going to inspire their re-entry into the market like just a little more upside for stocks. The fear of missing out is just as potent as the fear of loss.

In other words, Wednesday looks like a transition from a net-selling environment to a net-buying one.

This IS the Norm

While the last month or so has felt like the end of the world, truth be told, the 9.7% decline (from high to low) isn’t an abnormal stock market move. Investors have just become spoiled since the middle of 2012, which is the last time the S&P 500 went through a correction of 10% or more. Prior to that, going back for years and years, it wasn’t at all unusual to see corrections of 10% or more. Moreover, investors were used to them, and didn’t panic when they happened.

How did we manage to rally for more than two years without a normal bull market correction of 10%?

You can thank a highly responsive Federal Reserve that was more than willing to step in at the slightest hint of turbulence and talk the stock market up, even while it was buying bonds back at a brisk clip.

Although QE is going away and future corrections of this size are likely to become the norm again in the future, those dips shouldn’t be any more destructive than the current one has been.

Bottom Line

Granted, even after distinguishing this weakness as nothing more than normal, short-term weakness within a long-term uptrend, seeing so many stocks in so much trouble can be stressful. The solution?

  1. Take several deep breaths. (Seriously.)
  2. Ignore the market-based headlines for the rest of the week (particularly of they’re intended to incite emotion).
  3. Resolve to do nothing with long-term positions you’ve owned for a while until the dust settles sometime next week; short-term trades are a different story.
  4. Begin the search for new investment ideas without looking at their stocks’ charts — this should be a purely fundamental exercise.

The reality is, the current pullback is going to be nothing more than a fading memory before the year is over. The only evidence/reminder you’ll have that it ever happened will come in the form of a slightly lower cost basis for your new holdings (and even then, you won’t remember the details). The litmus test: At this point two months ago, was the stock market rising or falling? Most traders can’t recall.

Yes, it’s admittedly all easy to say but slightly tougher to do. To those willing and able to relax and realize the sky isn’t falling, however, this stumble is a sizable opportunity.

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Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/10/stocks-sp-500-bottom/.

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