Hurricanes and major storms are always a big problem for energy firms. But for BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP) and BP stock, this hurricane season could prove to be especially costly.

While many energy firms have taken a shine to shale, BP has continued to move further and further offshore and into the Gulf of Mexico. With one storm we haven’t seen the likes of in over a thousand years already crushing the Gulf Coast and another barreling through the Gulf of Mexico today, BP is caught between a rock and a hard place.

And the real losers could be investors.

The loss potential thanks to Hurricane Irma could be catastrophic for Florida and drillers in the Gulf. For investors, it could be another setback in a long line of them for the major energy stock.

A Big Hit to BP Stock

The damage from Hurricane Harvey is still being assessed, but one thing is for sure, it took a huge toll on America’s energy infrastructure. The vast bulk of America’s refining capacity lies on the Gulf Coast and with Harvey flooding and wrecking the region, much of that capacity remains offline.

While BP sold its petrochemical and refining operations in the region, it’s still a major driller in the waters in the Gulf of Mexico. And here too, Harvey did some major damage. According to the Federal Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), an estimated 22% of the current production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in, while over 23% of its natural gas production has also been closed.

“Shutting-in” is essentially plugging the well to prevent a leak in an emergency situation. But in that time, a rig isn’t producing. Moreover, opening the spigot back up requires the BSEE to perform safety checks and inspections. These inspections take time and all the while, firms aren’t producing oil.

This stinks for BP stock, as the energy giant is one of the largest producers of oil and natural gas in the region. Harvey will certainly take its toll on BP’s next earning report. That is if, it can file it with its corporate headquarters in the U.S. being underwater.

Perhaps even worse is that BP has looked ever increasingly toward the Gulf to renew its fortunes. Over the past few years, BP has continued to set-up its deep water game and has made the deepwater Gulf a cornerstone of the company’s future. Through 2021, the energy company is calling for more than $17 billion in annual investments to tap the Gulf and its deep-sea riches. The bulk of that spending will be placed in four fields — Thunder Horse, Atlantis, Na Kika and Mad Dog — in the Gulf’s deepwater region.

And where Hurricane Irma is headed?

BP has already begun the process of securing its offshore facilities in Irma’s wake. That includes evacuating personnel from its Thunder Horse platform and the West Vela drilling rig. The energy firm also mentioned that it was considering shut-in of production and evacuation of remaining offshore workers for the rest of its facilities in the Gulf.

A Big Problem for BP

With Irma being a larger and more powerful storm than even Harvey, any damage to Thunder Horse is a major issue. The platform is one of the largest in the entire Gulf and churns out steady production. However, its recent expansion efforts are where BP hopes to shine over the longer term.

The energy firm has recently started on a southern expansion effort that will add an additional 50,000 barrels per day worth of production. Meanwhile, major water injection project would allow for the recovery of an additional 65 million barrels of oil in total.

In short Thunder Horse is a major project and excuse the pun, BP has hitched its saddle up to the field.

And when you add in the $9 billion it spent on the neighboring Mad Dog field, you can see how this hurricane season has the potential to derail BP in a big way.

Keep An Eye On BP

With BP finally getting its mojo back, Irma and Harvey are potentially coming at a terrible time for the energy firm. The potential damage could be serious- especially with meteorologists having trouble pinpointing Irma’s exact pathway and its sheer size/wind speed. And considering that Thunder Horse and the Gulf are BP’s now main bailiwick, any hiccups here are very bad.

At a bare minimum, the shut-ins and storms should impact BP’s earnings next quarter. And that might be enough on its own to derail BP’s recent gains and its comeback. And if there’s significant damage to the platform … look-out below.

In the end, investors in BP need to keep one eye on the weather this weekend, even if they aren’t anywhere near the Gulf Coast. This hurricane season could be a big downer for the energy stock.

As of this writing, Aaron Levitt did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.