Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) stock is stuck in no-man’s land. Since 2016, XOM stock has pretty much just bounced around in the 80s. It has been a sell when it has hit $90 and a buy when it breaks below $80.

Right now, XOM stock is right around $83. That makes it rather uninteresting, but also fairly safe considering how close it is to $80 and the success of its offshore Guyana exploration initiatives.

So, is XOM stock a buy or a sell here? I don’t think its either. It’s simply a hold. Here’s why:

XOM Stock Isn’t the Bargain It Used to Be

XOM stock was a bargain back in August 2015.

At that point in time, WTI crude oil prices had plunged from $100 a barrel the year prior to $40 per barrel due to over-supply issues. Consequently, XOM stock had cratered from around $100 the year prior to around $75. The dividend yield briefly crossed over the 4% line. The trailing EBITDA multiple sat right around 6.

It was a good time to buy. Oil prices were far too low to be considered sustainable. The dividend yield had hit historic highs. The EBITDA multiple was still low.

But if you look at XOM stock now, you won’t see many of the same “bargain buy” signals. WTI crude oil prices have been range-bound in the 40’s and 50’s for all of 2017. The current supply-demand dynamics imply that oil prices will remain stuck in this range into the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, XOM stock is only yielding about 3.7%. That is a nice yield, but its not the sort of yield XOM stock features at bottoms. Over the past 5 years, XOM stock has bottomed when the dividend yield hits 4%.

Then there’s the valuation. XOM stock trades at a rather rich 10.8 times trailing EBITDA. That is a pretty big multiple for XOM stock, and it doesn’t exactly scream “bargain buy”.

Exxon Mobil Has Some Catalysts and One Big Headwind

The biggest catalyst for XOM going forward is Guyana.

Exxon Mobil hit a gold mine when they found oil in Guyana. For years, no one had been successful in this region. But in 2015, Exxon’s Liza-1 well discovered 90 meters of oil-bearing sandstone.

Over the next several months, Exxon found more and more oil. One of the finds was so promising (Turbot) that Exxon expects to drill another well there in 2018. Oil from these sites will begin flowing in 2020, so Guyana isn’t a near-term tailwind, but it could be a sizable long-term tailwind. After all, this is the exact sort of stability XOM needs in this volatile oil market.

Another catalyst is the outside shot that we might be due for a huge bull run in commodities. There is talk that commodities are about to run up in a big way thanks to copper. Copper usually leads commodity bull markets — and it’s up big so far this year. Meanwhile, commodity valuations are at all-time lows relative to equities, and that is bullish for an asset class with a largely cyclical valuation.

After all, had you bought commodities at similar valuation troughs in 1970 and 2000, you would’ve been rewarded with 20%-plus compounded returns over the subsequent decade.

But none of that is to say that oil will go on a run over the next decade. In fact, because the electric vehicle revolution has such strong in momentum (legislation across the world is moving to phase out gas-run vehicles), the long-term outlook for oil and gas prices isn’t terribly promising.

Bottom Line on XOM Stock

Overall, I am largely neutral on XOM stock.

I have a slight bullish skew owing to successful offshore Guyana exploration, a healthy dividend and the outside shot that commodities make a comeback here. But the stock doesn’t have any of the “bargain buy” signals it once had (4%-plus dividend and oil prices in the lower 40’s). Plus, long-term automobile demand headwinds remain, and that makes the current 10.8-times-EBITDA multiple seem more along the lines of “fair” than “cheap”.

I don’t think XOM stock is anything special here, but I do think the near-term bull thesis outweighs the near-term bear thesis.

Still, I’m waiting for the 4% dividend yield trigger to hit before buying any.

As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.