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Lululemon Athletica Inc. Stock Is Fully Valued After This Latest Pop

LULU stock looks fairly valued around $73

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Earlier this week, I recommended buying Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU) stock before the company reported third-quarter earnings. Resurgent mall traffic and renewed interest in the Lululemon brand told me that the numbers would be quite good. I reasoned that good numbers against the backdrop of positive tax reform progress and a reasonable valuation would send LULU stock materially higher.

Those numbers hit the tape last night, and they were quite good.

It was a double beat. That marks the fourth consecutive double beat quarter for LULU, the longest double-beat run the company has had in recent memory. This streak broadly illustrates that LULU stock is getting its groove back.

Comparable sales growth came in at 7%, far above Street estimates, which were sitting at 5%. Gross margins continued to expand. Operating margins flipped from compression last quarter to expansion this quarter. The full-year revenue and earnings guides were hiked.

Overall, the report was very good. LULU stock is up about 8% to around $73 as a result.

Unfortunately, I peg LULU’s fair value at $73.50, implying that LULU stock is fully valued after this big pop.

What does that mean? Time to do some profit taking.

LULU Stock Is Back on Track

Lululemon is clearly back to its winning ways.

After a surprise 1% drop in comparable sales in the first quarter, LULU has rebounded with two straight quarters of 7% growth in comparable sales. Moreover, this most recent quarter had a tougher lap than the previous quarter, so comparable sales trends are still improving.

Part of this sales improvement is that athletic retail, after a rough start to the year, is making a big comeback. As it turns out, the athleisure trend isn’t dead after all. It was just put on pause for a few months. Lululemon, with its trendy leggings and yoga-inspired apparel, is at the heart of this comeback.

Another part of this sales improvement is a general improvement in retail sales. By now, its no secret that Black Friday was a big hit for most retailers. With consumer confidence soaring, the market roaring higher, and tax reform around the corner, consumers are spending big.

I think both of these top-line growth drivers will stay in place into the foreseeable future. If so, that means this growth story still has a long runway.

Comparable sales are expected to rise in the mid single-digit range this year. That is about the same as last year. That mid single-digit rise in comps is expected to lead to about 11% sales growth.

Given how resilient comparable sales growth has been in the mid single-digit range, I think those growth numbers are here to stay. Revenues should continue to grow around 10% per year into the foreseeable future.

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