Why Tesla Inc Stock Is Heading Higher – Despite the Noise

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Tesla stock - Why Tesla Inc Stock Is Heading Higher – Despite the Noise

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There has been a lot of noise surrounding electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) recently, the sum of which has led to extreme volatility in Tesla stock.

After reaching a 2018 high of $360 in late February on Model 3 production ramp optimism, Tesla stock dropped to $250 in early April on cash burn, credit and production delay concerns. Over the next two months, Tesla stock quickly rebounded back to above $300, dropped to $280, rebounded back to $300 and dropped again to below $280.

Now, Tesla stock trades right around $290, which is something of a middle-of-the-road price tag for this exceptionally volatile stock.

Where will Tesla stock go next?

Near-term price movements are tough and nearly impossible to predict with TSLA. But longer-term, this stock will head materially higher because positive Model 3 production ramp points to a still-strengthening long-term growth narrative for Tesla.

Here’s a deeper look:

Ignore the Noise With Tesla Stock

All the noise that encompassed Tesla stock recently is just that: noise. Long-term investors would be wise to ignore it.

The conference call antics? Sure, CEO Elon Musk brashly ignoring analyst questions on a recent conference call draws eerie similarities to when Enron CEO Jeff Skilling called an analyst an “a**hole” on a conference call in 2001.

Over the course of the next year, Enron stock dropped to essentially zero. But the Tesla and Enron comparisons are way off. Enron was largely a black box with profits that seemingly came out of nowhere. Tesla is a consumer-facing company that sells a very real good (cars) and makes money for doing so. As such, an Enron-like collapse for Tesla stock is not in the cards.

Plus, Musk is known for being brash and snarky in all the ways a mad genius should be. The conference call antics may have been over the top, but they aren’t out of the norm. Thus, in the big picture, the conference call is hardly something to worry about.

Cash burn and credit concerns? These are more real concerns. But they come from Model 3 production delays. According to Bloomberg, Model 3 production is finally ramping, and the weekly vehicle production rate now surpasses 2,500. As long as Model 3 production ramp continues to improve, cash burn and credit concerns will move into the rear-view window.

Tariffs? Largely just a bunch of talk that won’t roll into a full-blown trade war because, as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) CEO Tim Cook said, it is so obviously a “lose-lose” situation.

Profitability? Tesla operates at some of the highest gross margins in the auto business. Thus, once revenues scale and investments roll back, overall profitability will zoom higher.

EV competition? Yes, other auto makers are ramping up their EV efforts, but Tesla remains the premiere brand in the space and is miles ahead of the competition.

Focus on Model 3 Ramp

All together, there is just a lot of noise surrounding Tesla stock right now, the sum of which is rather meaningless in the big picture.

The only thing that really matters right now at Tesla is Model 3 production ramp. And right now, Model 3 production is ramping at an impressive rate. As mentioned earlier, Tesla is producing roughly 2,500 Model 3 vehicles per week. That is up from less than 300 at the beginning of the year.

Moreover, the trend is positive, and Bloomberg estimates that weekly production of 3,000 will happen in the near future.

If this Model 3 production ramp trend continues in a positive direction, then Tesla stock will rebound with velocity. After all, essentially all of Tesla’s overarching concerns begin and end with Model 3 production. If Model 3 production gets fixed, then a lot of the headwinds holding back Tesla stock will suddenly disappear.

Overall, I still look at Tesla from the big-picture standpoint. This is a company that is leading the global automotive industry into a new world of electric and autonomous vehicles. As this transition plays out, Tesla will sell a bunch of cars at healthy gross margins of 25% and up. Thus, the long-term growth outlook for this company encompasses huge revenue growth side alongside robust margin expansion.

The big risk to that thesis is failure to ramp production. But production is finally ramping, and that means the aforementioned bull thesis it the most likely long-term outcome for this company.

Bottom Line on Tesla Stock

Huge volatility makes this stock scary. But if you can stomach big swings up and down, and understand the big picture of Tesla transforming into the world’s premiere electric vehicle company, then Tesla stock could be for you.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long TSLA and AAPL. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/06/tesla-inc-tesla-stock-heading-higher-despite-noise/.

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