Allergan Stock Is Worth a Look for Long-Term Investors

Advertisement

AGN stock - Allergan Stock Is Worth a Look for Long-Term Investors

Source: Everjean via Flickr

Biotech and pharmaceutical stocks have been a tough pill to swallow lately — no pun intended.

Pharmaceutical giant Allergan (NYSE:AGN) has been no exception to that. Pharma and biotech stocks were on fire pre-2015. Then Martin Shkreli happened. He jacked up the price of an AIDS drug from $13.50 to $750 overnight. The media got a hold of that. A national spotlight shone on the pharma industry’s price gouging. And pharma stocks, AGN stock included, dropped.

They haven’t really recovered since.

There are macro forces at work in the pharma industry which restrict these companies from raising prices like they used to and dominating market share like they used to. Namely, legislation and generics are creating long-term headwinds for pharma stocks.

AGN stock is included in that bunch, and as such, buyers haven’t really shown up to the AGN party just yet. The stock has been stuck in a steady downtrend since late 2015, and is now 50% off its five-year highs.

But for long-term investors, this could be an opportunity to buy a wide-moat, stable-growth company at a big discount.

Here’s a deeper look:

The Bad About AGN Stock

First, let’s talk about the bad regarding AGN stock.

The stock has been stuck in a downtrend since late 2015. There aren’t any signs out there that this downtrend will reverse course any time soon. Recent earnings report haven’t been spectacular. The technicals aren’t great. The valuation is cheap, but it has been cheap for a while.

Also, the narrative in the pharma industry isn’t that great, nor does it project to be that great in the near future. The spotlight is still on drug price hikes. Before Shkreli, pharma companies were raising drug prices by 20%-plus per year. Since then, drug price hikes have been in the high single-digit range, and will likely remain there into the foreseeable future.

Moreover, generics are on the rise. That is a persistent headwind which will continue to weigh on AGN’s numbers.

Thus, the near-term outlook for AGN stock really isn’t all that great. Broadly speaking, AGN stock has been stuck in a downtrend since late 2015, and there really isn’t anything changing in the fundamentals, technicals, or narrative that will help reverse that downtrend.

The Good About AGN Stock

If you are a long-term investor, though, you don’t really care about all the near-term noise surrounding price hikes, generics and technicals.

Instead, you realize that Allergan is a wide-moat, stable-growth company with a bunch of visibility over the next several years through delivering drugs of various use-cases to people who need them. You also realize that AGN stock trades at just 10-times forward earnings, versus a five-year average forward multiple of 13, and know that as long as earnings don’t fall out from here, AGN stock will head higher in the long run.

Indeed, the most likely outcome going forward is for earnings to grow, for the valuation to normalize, and for AGN stock to head higher.

The AGN operating model is highly successful. The company has a massive drug portfolio, and at any given time, the growth in the business is being driven by a select few number of drugs in that portfolio. New drugs come in, spark big growth, mature, and then fall back into low-growth mode. Then, more new drugs come, spark more big growth, mature, and fall back into low-growth mode.

This cycle has worked, still works, and will continue to work.

Right now, the buzz is all about Medical Aesthetics, Facial Aesthetics, and Plastics and Regenerative Medicine. This includes treatments like Botox, CoolSculpting, Juvederm, and Alloderm, all of which help individuals enhance their aesthetic. Enhancing aesthetic is a big trend right now, mostly thanks to Instagram, Snapchat, healthy eating trends, and the spreading of the Selfie Generation.

Thus, the buzz in these products have runway to power growth for the next several years. Beyond that, new products aimed at treating bipolar depression and migraines should constitute the next wave of growth drivers.

All together, I’m not terribly concerned about the longevity of AGN’s growth drivers. As such, I believe earnings should trend higher in a multi-year window, a belief which makes the present 10-times forward multiple seem rather anemic.

Thus, long-term, AGN stock should head materially higher from today’s depressed levels.

Bottom Line on AGN Stock

The short-term outlook on AGN stock is messy. But the long-term outlook is promising. Therefore, if you aren’t worried about near-term noise and are instead focused on multi-year gains, AGN stock is worth a look here and now.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AGN. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/07/allergan-agn-stock-look-long-term-investors/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC