A Serious Move into Offline Retail Means Great Things for Amazon Stock

Amazon stock - A Serious Move into Offline Retail Means Great Things for Amazon Stock

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Up to this point, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) has become a household name and trillion dollar company thanks to its online services. Amazon stock has grown accordingly, and the company has more worlds to conquer.

Amazon’s ecommerce business fundamentally changed the way consumers shop, while the cloud business fundamentally changed the way enterprises managed data. Put together, those two businesses have led Amazon to $200 billion-plus in revenues, and allowed Amazon stock to grow into a trillion dollar valuation.

But, the next leg of Amazon’s growth won’t be powered by online services. Not entirely, anyways. A big driver of Amazon’s next leg of growth will be offline services.

That might seem ironic. After all, Amazon’s online services are a big reason why the offline world has struggled recently. Namely, Amazon’s ecommerce business has been pointed to as the major reason why offline retail has had so many bankruptcies over the past several years.

But, in dominating the ecommerce realm, Amazon has realized that there is a cap to how big ecommerce will be. That is, there is a certain and large portion of sales that will forever remain in the offline realm.

Thus, if Amazon truly wants to dominate all things commerce, they can’t just be an ecommerce shop. They need to have a huge offline presence, too.

Amazon is finally starting to seriously build out that offline retail presence. The company owns Whole Foods and has a few bookstores and AmazonGo convenience stores, but this is just the beginning. Over the next several years, Amazon projects to significantly expand its offline retail presence.

This is big news for Amazon stock. Many pundits wonder how this stock can justify a trillion dollar valuation, let alone any valuation bigger than $1 trillion. The answer? Offline retail. Offline retail presents a huge opportunity for Amazon, and this company is in the early stages of realizing that massive opportunity.

Amazon Offline Has Tremendous Potential

There are multiple major new developments in the Amazon offline growth narrative, all of which have huge implications for Amazon stock.

Those developments include plans to expand delivery services for Whole Foods to several new markets, grow the cashier-less AmazonGo store base from less than 10 to 3,000 by 2021, and open new retail stores dubbed “Amazon 4-star” that sell only top-rated items from Amazon’s online store.

Independently, some of these offline retail plans might not seem like a big deal. After all, does it really matter if Whole Foods expanded delivery services to a few new markets, or if Amazon is opening one “Amazon 4-star” location in New York?

By themselves, those developments seem insignificant. But, when strung together with plans to open thousands of AmazonGo locations, these developments paint an important picture.

That picture is one where Amazon has its eyes set not just on offline retail expansion, but offline retail domination.

It would be just like Amazon to do this. Amazon doesn’t just get into markets to participate. They get into markets to dominate. Amazon didn’t just create an e-retail business. They dominated the e-retail world.

Amazon didn’t just create a cloud business. They dominated the cloud world. Amazon didn’t just create a subscription retail service. They created the world’s biggest subscription retail service.

Extrapolate that out. In a decade, we will be saying that Amazon didn’t just open convenience and grocery stores. They dominated the whole offline retail world.

That is a tall order. But, the company has a widely trusted brand known for providing the best consumer-facing services, a bunch of consumer data to enhance product offerings, multiple fulfillment centers to ease supply chain hiccups and more than 100 million Prime subscribers who would be excited to shop and get discounts at physical Amazon stores.

Moreover it has the technology know-how to “out-tech” traditional retail peers (no cashiers could be a huge thing for growth if Amazon pioneers that at scale before anyone else).

Overall, it really isn’t all that unlikely that Amazon turns into online retail dominance into offline retail dominance, too. That has significant and positive implications for Amazon stock.

Amazon Stock Is Powered by Multiple Growth Drivers

Offline retail is a big opportunity for Amazon. But, it is still just one of many growth drivers this company has.

The e-retail business won’t slow over the next several years. The ecommerce transition is a secular one that won’t disappear anytime soon, and Amazon is at the forefront of that secular shift. Meanwhile, Amazon’s cloud business is also at the forefront of a secular shift in the enterprise data management world.

There is also the booming digital ad business, as Amazon’s online real estate is heavily under-advertised considering the platform’s digital traffic volume. Over the next several years, Amazon will become a formidable player in the secular growth digital ad world.

There is also the smart home business, the potential pharmaceutical business and the potential logistics business. All of those businesses present huge opportunities, too.

Overall, Amazon is powered by multiple secular growth drivers. This stock doesn’t need all of those growth drivers to turn into huge successes. It only needs a few of them to go gangbusters, and that will be enough to power the stock way higher in a multi-year window.

Bottom Line on AMZN Stock

When it comes to investing, look forward, not back. If you look back, the valuation on Amazon stock makes no sense, and it hasn’t made any sense for the past $2,000. In other words, if you’d been looking backward this whole time, you would’ve missed out on the entire Amazon stock rally.

But, if you had been looking forward, you would’ve seen that Amazon stock has the potential to grow into its valuation. Same thing today. Pundits are concerned about the $1 trillion valuation. But, if you look forward, $1 trillion actually seems like a discount, considering the huge markets that this company plans to expand in to over the next several years.

Bottom line: stick with AMZN stock so long as the bull market remains intact.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AMZN. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/09/offline-retail-amazon-stock/.

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