ContextLogic (NASDAQ:WISH) stock may still rank as one of the most talked-about stocks on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets subreddit. But as the “meme stock” trend has continued to cool, don’t count on this giving WISH stock the momentum it needs to bounce back toward prior price levels.
That goes for any potential it may have once had as a “short squeeze” play as well. Just as I wrote previously, the percentage of its outstanding float sold short continues to come down. Between August and September, short interest fell from 31.7 million shares, to around 25 million shares.
Without the meme stock/short squeeze angle, there’s only one real reason to buy ContextLogic: as a turnaround play. If it can get itself back into high-growth mode and on the path to profitability? WISH stock, which at $5 per share is down around 79% from its IPO price of $24 per share, could see a tremendous rebound in price.
The problem? Issues like rising interest rates, inflation, and upcoming Federal Reserve tapering, continue to weigh on markets. The risk of stocks, speculative stocks in particular, selling off further remains high. With this, even if you’re bullish on this e-commerce company’s comeback, easing into WISH shares is the way to go.
The Pros and Cons of Buying WISH Stock as a Turnaround Play
As you may know, ContextLogic benefited greatly from the “stay-at-home economy” created by the Covid-19 pandemic. When households made a hard pivot to e-commerce when it came to consumer spending, the company’s platform saw tremendous revenue and user growth. But since the “reopening” kicked off by the vaccine rollout? Revenues have fallen year-over-year, its user base has shrunk and its operating losses have widened.
Putting it simply, what worked for it last year no longer works in a post-lockdown environment. That’s why WISH stock has tanked, and it’s why the company’s management is pursuing a major change in strategy. As my InvestorPlace colleague David Moadel wrote on Sept. 23, this includes reducing its digital ad spend, as well as improving the quality of the products offered on its platform.
Last month, I became more optimistic about WISH’s turnaround plans working out. However, I’ll concede there are pros and cons when it comes to buying this as a turnaround stock. On the pro side, you mostly have the high amount of potential upside if its new game plan proves successful. In other words, if it’s able to get back to growing its sales, and improving its margins. By doing so, ContextLogic may be able to bounce back from $5 per share today, to the $10, $15, or even $20 per share it traded for earlier this year.
The cons? Mostly the time it’s going to take for this turnaround to start playing out. Per the company’s own statement, it won’t be until mid-2022 that revenue growth resumes. Also consider the risk that stocks overall, despite taking a tumble last month, could see further declines in the months.
Timing With Stocks is Tough, But it May be Wise in This Situation
Typically, trying to time the market or individual stocks is difficult. Buy a stock when you think it’s cheap and has bottomed-out, and it ends up becoming cheaper, hitting a new low. Wait too long to make a move, fearful of further volatility, and you can miss getting in before it makes its recovery.
Yet in the case of WISH stock, you may want to employ a timing strategy. I don’t mean sitting out until it drops another 50%—Given how much it’s declined, it may not see another big drop, even if we see the stock market’s recent slide turn into a sell-off. I’m talking more along the lines of acquiring a toehold position now, and adding to your position if it makes subsequent moves lower.
Of course, not even this strategy is guaranteed to be profitable. If ContextLogic’s in-motion changes fail to spark a comeback? There’s a chance of it seeing a dramatic rebound in price. Instead, as it continues to flounder, it really could fall down to $3 per share—And stay there.
Whether you buy now, or at lower prices, this remains a risky stock. Position accordingly.
Even if You’re Bullish on it Making a Comeback, Move Slowly Instead of Fast With ContextLogic
Admittedly, the main appeal with ContextLogic is not the high likelihood that its turnaround succeeds. It’s more the high level of payoff one could see if it does pan out. The odds may be in your favor, yet it’s questionable whether it’s a lock, a long-shot, or something in-between.
WISH’s comeback chances are murky, and there’s market volatility that appears set to continue. Bottom line: even if you’re bullish on WISH stock, move slowly into it instead of fast.
On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.
