Bitcoin (BTC-USD) approaches a pivotal juncture in its halving cycle. The token’s next halving is set for April 2024, which will reduce block rewards by 50%, slowing new coin issuance. The debut of spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q1 2024 has also increased demand, creating a clear supply/demand imbalance that favors rising prices.
That said, there are certainly plenty of risks and uncertainty heading into this event. As with any catalyst, the outcome isn’t guaranteed. Thus, investors may want to remain cautious heading into this halving.
Let’s dive into where Bitcoin could be headed with this key catalyst on the horizon.
$180K Price Target
There are certainly some bullish price targets out there.
According to Acheron Trading CEO Laurent Benayoun, Bitcoin’s price (around $70,000 per token at the time of writing) could surge 150% in the current bull market cycle. Benayoun suggests a peak of $180,000, considering factors like Bitcoin ETFs and the impending halving based on historical patterns. He predicts a lower multiple on the all-time high, estimating $120,000 to $180,000 per unit.
Benayoun also noted that Bitcoin’s price could benefit from accommodative monetary policy in the United States, with an anticipated decrease in interest rates likely to drive investment in store of value assets.
Moreover, Benayoun’s forecast aligns with other recent predictions, including one from Bitfinex analysts, anticipating Bitcoin reaching $120,000 by the end of 2024. According to a report shared with Cointelegraph, this analysis suggests a conservative price target of $100,000-$120,000 per token by Q4 2024, with the cycle peak expected in 2025.
Finally, Bitcoin’s price could peak at $337,000, according to Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo, who stated in a March 11 post that the upper bound model currently sits at this level. Moreover, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest predicts a Bitcoin price exceeding $1 million by 2030, citing increased institutional involvement as a driving factor.
Stay Bullish, But Caution is Advised
These incredibly bullish price targets are great. However, I tend to think that some degree of caution is warranted when it comes to Bitcoin’s upside potential over the next few weeks.
Indeed, the upcoming halving event is a big deal, and historically-speaking, Bitcoin has performed well following these halvings. However, it’s also true that Bitcoin can be volatile around these key events. We’ve seen a “sell the news” decline following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, before a real surge. Thus, it’s really a coin toss right now with respect to how the world’s largest cryptocurrency will perform before the halving.
That said, I think in terms of the balance of risks, it’s more likely than not that Bitcoin rallies through this event. After all, the world’s largest crypto is only going to see improved supply and demand fundamentals emerge as a result of this halving. For those looking to get their hands on increasingly-scarce Bitcoin, it’s going to get tougher. And right now, we’re in a very supply and demand driven market.
I can see Bitcoin heading above $100,000 per token in the coming months following this halving. However, heading into the event, I think uncertainty will remain.
On the date of publication, Chris MacDonald did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
