This a Rare Opportunity to Buy JD.Com (JD) Stock

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If you’re familiar with Chinese internet stocks, then you’re familiar with the following predicament. JD.Com Inc(ADR) (NASDAQ:JD) or Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE:BABA)? Which one do you buy? JD stock or BABA stock?

This a Rare Opportunity to Buy JD.Com (JD) Stock

Lets make this real simple: just buy both.

The thesis is pretty straight forward. There are two really big trends at play here.

Firstly, you have the China urbanization trend. China’s giant working class is finally starting to urbanize. Incomes are starting to rise. Technology usage is ramping up. All in all, China’s consumers are starting to look more and more like American consumers. This means more disposable income and more shopping — a positive for both JD and Alibaba.

Secondly, you have the e-commerce trend. In America, e-commerce sales continue to tick up, growing market share by about a percentage point per year. The same trend is taking hold in China. Shipping has grown by 10-fold from 2006 to 2014.

With these two trends in place, there is a whole bunch of growth potential in the Chinese e-commerce market. The robust growth outlook means that two players can grow side-by-side without materially hurting one another.

That is why I’m buying both JD stock and BABA stock. No more picking and choosing. I’m just placing my bets on the secular trends playing out in full-force in China.

JD Stock and BABA Stock: Room For Two?

Lets look at some figures from the research team over at Goldman Sachs.

The United States has a working population of 146 million. China’s working population is more than five times as big at 770 million. More than half of that working population still live in rural areas and have yet to urbanize. That is why average daily spending in China totals just $7, compared to nearly $100 in the US.

But incomes in China are starting to rise. And with massive technology and digital changes sweeping across the country, this income growth is expected to continue into the foreseeable future.

In sum then, China has a whole bunch of people who don’t spend all that much, but are starting to earn more. These consumers don’t have much debt, so, naturally, higher earnings will flow into higher spending.

Put it all together and you will understand why Goldman thinks that China’s e-commerce market will go from $750 billion last year to $1.7 trillion by 2020. That is a 23% annualized growth rate between now and 2020.

In a market growing at 23% per year, there is almost certainly room for two players to compete side-by-side and both still be hugely successful. This is why I agree with MKM Partners. Yes, Alibaba is number one, but the “China retail opportunity is sufficiently large to support a strong number two.”

Wells Fargo thinks this is the case too. In fact, this sentiment seems to be the consensus on Wall Street. That is why both stocks are up more than 50% over the past year.

Bottom Line on JD Stock

I like JD stock here. It’s down more than 10% since mid-September while the S&P 500 is actually up. That disconnect makes no sense considering the secular growth trends underpinning JD’s business.

Plus, JD stock is trading at 45 times next year’s earnings — earnings that are expected to grow about 90%. This is pretty favorable valuation-to-growth asymmetry.

And then there is the one thing JD has that Alibaba doesn’t.

JD.com operates its own logistics network, and it’s quite extensive. Alibaba doesn’t operate its own logistics network. This is a huge difference. If you can’t deliver product to your customer in a timely fashion, demand will almost certainly shift to a competitor that can. Alibaba is making a huge push to even the playing field in this regard, but JD has already moved on to the next big thing in the logistics market: automated warehouses and drone deliveries.

On the logistics front, then, Alibaba is busy playing catch-up, while JD is innovating at an unrivaled pace.

This logistics advantage only deepens my conviction that buying JD stock is the right move here. It’s a sizable sell-off on a stock trading at a discount to its growth — growth that is being fueled by very strong secular tailwinds.

Overall, I like this set-up and think JD stock growth is imminent.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long JD and BABA.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/10/rare-opportunity-buy-jd-stock/.

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