Earnings Trade: Could We See a Monster Run-up in JBL?

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It’s hard to find a prettier chart than that of Jabil Circuit (JBL).

The stock has doubled off its July low, moving almost in a straight line higher thanks to the tandem support of its 10-day and 20-day moving averages.

The next area of chart resistance is around the $19 area, the site of the 200-week moving average and the August 2008 peak. But that’s nearly 50% above the current stock price, leaving a wide-open field higher.

Expectations for JBL are mixed heading into earnings. The Street predicts a big pullback of around 75% in quarterly profits. Analysts are mixed toward the stock, with just half rating it a “buy.”

The put/call ratio is near an annual low, which normally suggests optimism. (Keep in mind that optimism represents higher expectations and, thus, can create some vulnerability if those expectations aren’t met. Conversely, pessimistic sentiment reflects lower expectations that often lead to upside earnings surprises.) But the last time the ratio was this low was in March, right before a monster run-up in the stock price.

One factor that makes JBL suited to a call option play is that the stock undergoes significant moves after earnings. In fact, JBL is up an average of 18% in the two weeks following the past three earnings reports. That fact has pushed JBL to the forefront of my trading radar.

I’d prefer to see a little pullback to the 10-day to provide a better entry point. That may depend on the market’s flow.

JBL reports Tuesday Sept. 29, after the close, so we have a few days to wait. 


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Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2009/09/earnings-trade-jbl/.

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