After a stellar run from 2009 to 2015, shares of coffee house operator Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) haven’t gone anywhere over the past three years. In 2009, Starbucks stock was at $5. By 2015, it was a $60 stock. And today, it is still a $60 stock.

Unfortunately, in a few years, I think SBUX will still be a $60 stock.

Starbucks stock simply remains too richly valued considering its still-dampening growth prospects. The company is coming under competitive pressure on all sides, and while the Street is hoping for a bounce-back in comparable sales growth later this year, I don’t realistically see that happening anytime soon.

Indeed, the company’s competitive pressures are only growing, and comparable sales growth seems to have settled into a era of slower growth.

Starbucks stock isn’t priced for that.

All in all, SBUX stock remains a sell here. I don’t think this stock is worth much more than $50.

Starbucks Is Losing Customers Left and Right

This sideways run in Starbucks stock isn’t entirely unexpected.

After all, due to its unprecedented streak of 25 consecutive quarters of 5%-plus comparable sales growth, Starbucks had convinced investors that it was a wide-moat, hyper-growth investment. Consequently, Starbucks stock had run up to valuation levels normally reserved for wide-moat, hyper-growth tech companies.

But then that 5%-plus comparable sales streak broke a few quarters ago. And comparable sales growth has only weakened ever since. Last quarter, transaction growth was flat, while ticket growth was up 2%, leading to overall comparable sales growth of just 2%.

Under the hood, SBUX is feeling competitive pressure on all sides.

The company is losing low-price, value-oriented consumers to McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) and other fast casual chains. Those price-first fast casual giants have not only rolled out all-day breakfast initiatives, but have also significantly upped their coffee and snacks game. They are now offering Starbucks-like drinks for way less.

Meanwhile, the company is losing high-price, trend-oriented consumers to indie coffee shops, which are rising in popularity everywhere in the U.S. and throughout Europe. Those indie coffee shops offer a more mom-and-pop feel versus the corporate feel of a Starbucks, and that seems to make them cooler and attract the trend-oriented consumer.

Overall, then, SBUX is losing consumers on both ends of the price spectrum. That is a serious headwind that won’t ease anytime soon. The company is finding out that it is nearly impossible to be really big, really pricey, and really cool.

As soon as you get really big, you stop becoming really cool. As soon as you stop becoming really cool, you lose pricing power.

We are currently witnessing this inevitable decomposition of the once untouchable SBUX kingdom. Political backlash from a racism scandal which has been blown up by the media will only hasten this decomposition.

Starbucks Stock Isn’t Worth Much More Than $50

Longer-term, transaction growth will remain flat as the company continues to battle against fast casual chains and indie coffee shops for traffic. Ticket growth will continue to be weak as SBUX will find it difficult to raise prices and not suffer from churn with so much competition in the market.

Essentially, then, comparable sales growth will be near the flat-line and all growth will be powered by unit expansion.

Inevitably, unit growth will slow with time, too.

Overall, this is a slowing growth story. Revenue growth was 6% last quarter and 8% last year. At best, revenues grow in the 6-8% range over the next 5 years. At 7% per year, revenues will be $31.4 billion in 5 years.

Operating margins are currently under pressure due to weak comparable sales performance and a shift to more food orders. Those two headwinds will persist, but assuming digital and automation initiatives offset those headwinds, operating margins should be able to expand to 20%, from mid-19% over the past two years.

A 20% operating margin on revenues of $31.4 billion implies operating profits of $6.3 billion in 5 years.

Taking out 26% for taxes and dividing by a presumably reduced share count of 1.3 billion, that equates to just under $3.60 in earnings per share in 5 years. The market normally trades at 16-times forward earnings. SBUX stock usually trades at 26-times forward earnings.

Starbucks stock in the future won’t get its normal multiple due to the weaker growth profile. But it also won’t trade all the way down to a market multiple because of its strong brand image.

Consequently, a 21-times forward multiple (midpoint of 16 and 26) feels appropriate. A 21-times forward multiple on $3.60 earnings implies a four-year forward price target of around $75-76. Discounted back by 10% per year, that equates to a present value in the lower $50’s.

Bottom Line on Starbucks Stock

There will be no big bounce-back in comparable sales growth at SBUX in the near future. Growth will continue to be pressured by rising competition from fast casual breakfast chains and indie coffee shops.

SBUX stock still isn’t priced as if this current era of slower growth will persist. Consequently, it looks like there is still more room to fall for SBUX stock.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long MCD.