For the record, I’m a long-term bull on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock. I think this company is a pioneer in a new of era of transportation and will inevitably be the world’s largest automotive manufacturer in five to ten years as the electric vehicle market goes from nascent to the global norm. But, even as a long-term bull on Tesla stock, I recognize the negative headline risks which presently make the shares impossible to own.
For example, over the past week alone, here are a few of the big headlines involving Tesla:
- Tesla’s Chinese rival, EV maker NIO, launched a $1.3 billion U.S. IPO.
- Tesla Chief People Officer Gabrielle Toledano took a leave of absence.
- Tesla’s fleet network crashed.
- BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), a top shareholder of Tesla, reportedly voted to replace Elon Musk as chairman.
- Famed investor Whitney Tilson said in a Seeking Alpha interview that there’s a 30% chance of Tesla imploding.
- Electrek reported that Tesla isn’t producing its stated goal of 6,000 Model 3 vehicles per week.
- Bloomberg data confirmed that Tesla isn’t producing 6,000 Model 3 vehicles per week.
- The New York Post also reported that Tesla is having production issues with the Model 3.
- German automakers launched new electric vehicles.
- Goldman Sachs resumed coverage of Tesla stock with a “Sell” rating and a $210 price target.
That is a mouthful. And, more importantly, none of it is good. From a high-level, it looks like bearish sentiment on TSLA stock is building thanks to persistent production issues, ramping EV competition, and continued boardroom drama. With all those negative headline risks floating around the stock, Tesla is a tough buy here and now.
Long-term, though, the bull thesis of Tesla transforming into the world’s leading EV automaker remains promising.
So the investment strategy here is pretty simple: Wait for the dust to settle. Let the negative headlines rush in and depress the price of TSLA stock. Then, once the dust has settled and the storm has passed, buy the shares for the long haul.
Tesla Stock Is Very Risky
Unless you don’t care about losing money in the near-term and are 100% focused on long-term gains, I don’t see any reason to own Tesla stock right now.
The headline risks surrounding this stock are simply too big to ignore. From production issues to increasing competition concerns to ongoing boardroom drama, nothing is going right for Tesla. Inevitably, as long as these headline risks persist, they will continue to weigh on investor sentiment, and Tesla stock will drop.
Thus, at this point in time, TSLA stock has turned into a falling knife due to bad optics. I don’t think the optics will improve any time soon. Plus, Tesla stock has broken its longtime $300 support level, and there really isn’t any technical line of defense until $250.
Tesla stock could drop to $250 in the foreseeable future, meaning that anyone who buys the stock here still faces sizable downside risks. As a result, I don’t see any reason to buy the dip in Tesla stock just yet.
A Long-Term Opportunity Will Be Created Soon
Despite the headwinds facing Tesla, I still believe in this company’s long-term growth narrative. My long-term bullishness on Tesla stock is based on three things:
- Tesla is the brand in the EV market.
- Model 3 production is ramping, and Tesla’s EV production rates are far ahead of its peers.
- The proliferation of autonomous driving will create huge, long-term growth drivers for Tesla.
In short, Tesla has an extremely strong brand image among young consumers and is ramping production of Model 3 to a level which is unmatched in the EV space, while the growth of autonomous driving and mobility-as-a-service gives the company a potentially huge, long-term growth driver.
Right now, the market doesn’t want to pay attention to any of these long-term growth drivers. But if the company can turn a profit in the third quarter or the fourth quarter, the market will overcompensate and focus solely on these long-term growth drivers.
At that point in time, TSLA stock will likely roar to $400 and higher.
Bottom Line on Tesla Stock
There is no reason to own Tesla here and now. But, with Model 3 production trending in the right direction, it looks like Tesla will be able to generate a profit in the second half of 2018. As a result, I view the automaker’s Q3 results as a potentially huge inflection point in the Tesla narrative. I think investors should buy Tesla stock ahead of that report.
Until then, I’d wait on the sidelines, as bad optics will likely continue to depress the price of Tesla’s shares.
As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.