Here’s a brief comparison between ChangeWave’s August Consumer Spending results and a recent Conference Board report on U.S. Consumer Confidence.
The bottom line is we got it right: While consumer confidence has improved slightly—due to falling oil prices—real-world consumer spending behavior continues to decline.
Importantly, as our August report concluded: “Going forward, consumer spending in the U.S. is still trending downwards.”
Check out this brief comparison below:
(A) ChangeWave’s August Consumer Survey Results
“Consumer Spending Drops Further Even as Confidence Starts to Perk Up”
“There’s no break yet in the bad news regarding consumer spending, with the latest ChangeWave survey showing still further declines for the already reeling U.S. consumer (see also, “Inflation, Energy Costs Transform Consumer Behavior“).
“On a somewhat brighter note, with oil prices down from record highs consumer confidence is picking up ever so slightly—one of the first signs of stabilizing in months…. In another sign of improvement, 15% of respondents say the current state of the economy is better than they thought it would be 90-days ago—a 7-pt increase since July.
“Bottom Line: It’s mostly bad news on the consumer spending front as our latest survey shows still further declines in store for the next 90 days. But even as things worsen, there’s a silver lining in that consumer confidence in the economy has picked up ever so slightly—driven by the recent drop in the price of oil.” (See also, “Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) To The Rescue?“)
The following chart illustrates the improvement in consumer confidence we picked up in early August:
(B) Yesterday’s Conference Board Results on Consumer Confidence
U.S. consumer confidence rises again; job concerns persist
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)—U.S. consumer confidence rose in August—the second consecutive month of gains—but the level remained relatively low and job concerns persisted, the Conference Board reported Tuesday.
The August consumer confidence index rose to 56.9 from a July reading of 51.9. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected an August reading of 53…Meanwhile, the percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to worsen over the next six months fell to 25.8% from 32.4%.
(Note: The following Conference Board finding is measuring a real world concern rather than measuring consumer confidence —and here, similar to our survey results, they find that things are getting worse).
The percentage of consumers saying jobs are “hard to get” rose to 32% in August from 30.2% in July.
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