Traders R.I.P.

Put a fork in it. The days of easy money for the trader are gone and may not return. It was a good run, but just when you wrote off buy and hold investing, such a strategy may be exactly what works going forward.

After a rousing and predictable sell-off last Monday, the market rallied for the remainder of the week. On the back of a broken economy, bad news followed by more bad news, and investors simply defied gravity and said enough is enough.

The big kicker was the move on Friday. On a day that received the worst jobs report since 1974, stocks jumped by more than 3%. Although volatility was still huge, finishing the day with gains was very impressive, to say the least.

It was all very perplexing, and you could see it in the eyes of the so called professionals. If there were ever a reason for stocks to be down and down hard, it was Friday. The economy losing more than 500,000 jobs in the month is a big deal.

About the only certainty that can be gained from the report was that any recovery from the current state will take time, effort and lots of stimulus. This is more than just a one-year event.

While it is safe to assume that the market has priced in a recession that will last through the end of 2009, what is not so certain is what happens if the recession goes beyond that date.

That is why the moves last week are so confounding…

>

The economy is not a nimble speed boat that can easily change direction.  It is more like an ocean liner that requires ample time to change course.

With a jobs report like we had on Friday, it is abundantly clear that we are heading toward the iceberg. Instead of running for the lifeboats, investors cheered. The action made no sense.

Turning to the tape would not have been much help in this case. We were right in the middle, and most technical analysis would have suggested the market could have gone either way. We were the pickle in the middle. (See also: "A Trader’s Guide for the Rest of the Year.")

Last week had the feeling of being caught in the cold without a jacket. There was simply no reliable way of knowing that stocks were going to rally and rally hard.

If you traded the market last week, you most likely lost money. If you are a buy and hold investor, you made money. Could this be the sign that trading may be losing its luster?

Not necessarily.  The good news for traders is that volatility is still quite high. As such, money can still be made with rapid-fire moves, but I think it is important to recognize that the risk in doing so has increased.

You need to be careful out there, and you need to be on the right side of the trade…

>

It is a tricky thing to do, and frankly, not that many can do it. Even with the right charts, trading will simply become more and more difficult from here. (Want help in this tough environment? Check out Jon Markman’s Trader’s Advantage by clicking here now.)

As an alternative, I think the time has come to build a portfolio on the long side and stick with it. If you were out of the market this past week, you missed an impressive rally that has continued today.

In my own model portfolio, I am content having a 75% allocation to stocks, and I will do very little rotating in this environment. In fact, I would like to be 100% allocated to stocks, if not more. (See also: "Top 10 Stocks for 2009.")

What will be the trigger for making that move? 

For me it will be the passing of time or one more test of the lows.  As I said, fixing this economy will take time and will take more time than most are now expecting.

In the interim, I’m content with my long positions and a small amount in reserve. I will deploy as I see opportunity.

This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2008/12/day-traders-rip/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC