Consider Puts as KB Home Reports Earnings

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Though the week before earnings (Alcoa (NYSE: AA) kicks off the new season on Monday) is usually slow, there are a few names of note that dot the earnings schedule. One is homebuilder KB Home (NYSE: KBH), one of the stalwarts of the industry along with Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN), PulteGroup (NYSE: PHM), and DR Horton (NYSE: DHI).

KBH reports on Friday before the open, with analysts expecting a 17-cent per-share loss. Actually, these estimates don’t mean a whole lot, as they rarely come close to hitting the mark. A year ago, for example, analysts called for KBH to lose 42 cents per share. The company came in at a positive $1.31 per share.  Whoops.

What’s important is how KBH does after it reports earnings. Actually, it’s not too good. In fact, over the past four quarters, which involved two beats and two misses, the stock has declined every week after reporting by an average of 3.6%.

Today, KBH is having a big day, bouncing off its 10-day moving average for a gain of more than 5%. But the move has the stock trading at its December highs around the $14.25 mark, which could provide resistance once again. This also happens to be the site of the stock’s 20-month moving average and of heavy call open interest in the January series. That’s quite a few obstacles to overcome.

Sentiment toward KBH is mixed. The put/call ratio is coming off a bottom, a sign that puts are gaining favor. Analysts are skeptical of the shares and short interest is robust. So sentiment could work either way.

Given this background, and the fact that the housing sector is a bit overheated after a solid December, we’re going to side with history. Wait to see if resistance at $14.25 holds before jumping in on the put side. If it does, the KBH Jan 15 Puts have been trading around $1.20. That in-the-money option should provide plenty of leverage while offering some protection should the stock move higher.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/01/consider-puts-as-kb-home-reports-earnings/.

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