A report this week from research firm IDC shows that while the smartphone market will grow as quickly in 2011 as it did in 2010, jumping to sales of 450 million devices, Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) market share may have already peaked.
According to IDC, the competing smartphone platforms didn’t change much during the past year. Google’s (NASDAQ:GOOG) Android leads with a 39.5% share of the market, followed by Nokia’s (NYSE:NOK) Symbian, then Apple’s iOS with almost 16%, and Research In Motion’s (NASDAQ:RIMM) BlackBerry with almost 15%. Microsoft’s (NASDAQ:MSFT) Windows Phone 7 and Windows Mobile trail with 5.5%.
IDC’s projections for 2015 paint a similar portrait — with a few differences. While the end of Symbian will cede some additional market share to Android, IDC believes that Nokia’s adoption of Windows Phone 7 will bump Microsoft into second place, controlling almost 21% of the market.
But more troubling for Apple — is that IDC sees the company as having reached maximum market share already, with its share actually falling by less than a percentage point by 2015.
Several developments could fundamentally alter IDC’s projections. If rumors of a smaller, cheaper iPhone turn out to be true, Apple could begin to cut into the lower-cost market that Nokia dominates.
IDC also expects that Nokia can hold onto its market share as it moves to Windows. But there’s no guarantee that Nokia will rehabilitate its smartphone business with Microsoft’s operating system or, as NOK CEO Stephen Elop called it, Windows’ “app ecosystem.” Competing manufacturers like Motorola (NYSE:MMI), Sony Ericsson, HTC, and others may have already made too much headway against Nokia in that company’s traditional markets with their Android devices for Nokia’s Windows strategy to make the necessary difference.
There’s also the issue of how the broad shift to 4G networks from mobile providers in both the U.S. and Asia could create new windows of opportunity for platform providers. Research In Motion, for example, is planning to allow Android apps on its upcoming BlackBerry Playbook tablet PC. That may not seem dramatic, but it does hint at the possibility of RIM pulling a Nokia and adopting a third-party operating system in future phones made by the company.
If RIM introduced a low-cost, 4G BlackBerry running the Android OS when Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and AT&T’s (NYSE:T) 4G networks are firmly established in 2013, Google’s worldwide market share could be significantly higher than 45%.
If the market remains static, IDC’s projections would be perfectly sound and investors could pursue opportunities suited to that competitive landscape. However, too many changes are on the horizon for this report to be totally reliable though — especially for investors counting on a great opportunity for Nokia or Microsoft.
As of this writing, Anthony John Agnello did not own a position in any of the stocks named here. Follow him on Twitter at @ajohnagnello and become a fan of InvestorPlace on Facebook.
