Cisco Looks Lost at the Top

It’s been downright scary for shareholders of Cisco (Nasdaq:CSCO), with several big drops in the stock this year.  The latest came on Thursday when the price fell 4.2% to $17.02 in response to the company’s weak forecast for its current quarter.  So far in 2011, the shares are off 16% (shares were off a fraction on Friday).

So the buzz is whether the CEO, John Chambers, will be pushed out.  No doubt, many shareholders would like this to happen, yet it still looks like the board has confidence in Chambers. 

It would also be tough for an activist shareholder to make a play for Cisco.  Keep in mind that the company’s market cap is still a hefty $93 billion.

Historically, you can still make the case that Chambers has a great track record.  In 1995, he became the CEO of Cisco and understood that the Internet was on the verge of explosive growth.  To this end, he used the company’s rising stock price and cash flows to purchase top-notch companies.  It was a great way for Cisco to remain on the cutting edge.

The problem?  With Cisco’s revenue now at about $40 billion, it has become exceedingly difficult to grow. 

And Cisco is not alone.  Other tech titans have experienced the same problem with their top lines  Notable examples include Nokia (NYSE:NOK), Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) and Intel (Nasdaq:INTC).

But it is not impossible to grow a massive company.  Just look at Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL), which is growing faster than many startups.  A key has been Apple’s laser focus on innovation.  Because of this, the company has consistently redefined huge market segments like cell phones and music.

True, Apple may be in a unique position since it is really a consumer business.  But even in the business tech world, there are examples of large operators that can grow revenue.  One is Oracle (Nasdaq:ORCL), whose CEO, Larry Ellison, had the foresight to consolidate key software markets – such as enterprise resource planning – that complimented its core database business.  Over the past 5 years, the stock price has grown at an annual growth rate of 20.95%.

Or consider IBM (NYSE:IBM).  It has purchased dozens of software companies to leverage its global services business.  All in all, it has been quite successful.  Its stock has posted an annual growth rate of 17.2% for the past five years. 

So in the case of Chambers, he needs to develop a clear-cut strategy that has long-term potential.  Doing anything else would be a distraction. Unfortunately, Chambers has shown little focus over the past decade.  Does any investor know what Cisco is about?  Probably not. 

In other words, unless Chambers comes up with a focused strategy – on the scale that Ellison was able to do – then Cisco is likely to continue to be dead money for investors. 

Tom Taulli’s latest book is “All About Short Selling” and his Twitter account is @ttaulli.  He does not own a position in any of the stocks named here.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books. They include Artificial Intelligence Basics and the Robotic Process Automation Handbook. His upcoming book is called Generative AI: How ChatGPT and other AI Tools Will Revolutionize Business.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/05/cisco-looks-lost-at-the-top/.

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