June’s vehicle sales released last Friday told a good news-bad news tale about the eagerly anticipated revival of automakers’ fortunes. The good news? Auto sales grew last month. The bad news? Not by as much as analysts had expected.

After May sales slumped to an annualized rate of 11.8 million vehicles, most analysts had expected the industry to bounce back in June. But when the math is done, the annualized June sales rate could end up below the 12 million mark, the lowest level in 10 months. By comparison, vehicle manufacturers had been planning on 2011 U.S. vehicle sales in the 13 million range.

Still, growth is growth and the June numbers were enough to give auto stocks a bump on Friday. Ford (NYSE: F), General Motors (NYSE: GM), Toyota (NYSE: TM) and Honda (NYSE: HMC) all received a modest bounce.

But in the competition for U.S. car buyers in June, the Detroit Three won the day over their Japanese counterparts. GM led the pack in June with 215,358 total sales – an increase of nearly 11% over the same month last year. GM sales were driven by a 28% increase in passenger car sales.

Ford reported total sales of 194,114 vehicles – an increase of 13.6% over June 2010. Demand for new products like the redesigned Explorer SUV and Fiesta subcompact was strong.

Chrysler slipped into third place with 120,394, a 30% increase over last year and the company’s strongest June sales performance since 2007.  Chrysler was riding high on a 74% sales increase in its Jeep brand.

Predictably, Japanese vehicle manufacturers continued to struggle in the wake of the March 11 earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster in Japan.  Toyota sold only 110,937 vehicles in June, a decrease of more than 24% over last June.  Honda’s U.S. sales also declined 24% over June 2010 to 83,892 vehicles.

Automakers believe the May and June numbers are little more than a blip on the screen and that U.S. vehicle sales will rebound to an annualized rate of 12.6 to 13 million later this year. But here are five things we learned from June sales that could temper that optimism:

1. Consumers Still Are Cautious. With unemployment now at 9.1%, the Conference Board reported this week that only 3.1% of consumers are planning to buy a new vehicle in the next six months – the lowest percentage since December 2010.
2. Higher Prices Are Giving Consumers Pause. Low vehicle inventories and rising commodity costs prompted automakers to end incentives and raise prices.  That was a mistake. Instead of buying up scarce models at higher prices, consumers decided to wait out the shortages to get a better deal.
3. Inventory Shortages Aren’t Resolved Yet. Although Japanese production of popular models like the Toyota Prius is returning to normal, it will take some time to replenish dealer inventories. As a result, customers may end up ordering cars that they can’t pick up for weeks or months – or push those purchases off into the future.
4. Gas Price Volatility Still Can Wreak Havoc. It’s not just high pump prices that can wreak havoc with vehicle sales – it’s gas price volatility. Prices in the $4-per-gallon range sparked greater interest in hybrid or electric vehicles. But as gas prices fall, demand for light trucks rises. Yo-yo fuel prices may be enough to convince buyers to hold off on a big purchase until things stabilize.
5. The Recovery Still Is Limping Along. Consumers are increasingly concerned about their jobs and finances, according to survey data released on Friday. The Thomson/Reuters Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 71.5 in June, down from 74.3 in May. This time last year, the index stood at 76. According to the survey’s director, that means “the consumer no longer has the financial wherewithal to power the economy into overdrive.”

As of this writing, Susan J. Aluise did not hold a position in any of the stocks named here.