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When astronomers hunt for a new planet, they don’t see it with their own eyes. They watch the wobble, or the way a massive, unseen body tugs everything around it off course. For years, that is exactly how investors traded SpaceX (SPCX). They couldn’t own the company itself, so they bought its gravitational shadows: the satellite makers, the launch companies, the Earth-imaging outfits orbiting the same idea.
Then the planet appeared.
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135, opened near $150, and within days punched through $225, more than 50% above its offer price, pulling its valuation toward the neighborhood of $3 trillion.
This is the biggest public debut in market history. And the moment the real thing was tradable, the shadows went dark. The proxies that had run up for years on borrowed light started falling back toward earth.
But that selloff says nothing about the fundamentals of space.
It’s mechanical… a plumbing problem in how money flows, not a verdict on the physics.
So let me walk you through what this IPO actually proved, why orbital compute may be the most valuable real estate of the next decade, and which beaten-down names could lead the comeback tour.
The Bull Thesis on SpaceX
Start with the bull thesis on SpaceX, because it’s simpler than it sounds. SpaceX is building the AWS of space… the cloud layer for AI compute that lives above the atmosphere.
Right now, terrestrial compute runs about a dollar per GPU hour by our team’s estimates. Orbital compute? Call it $142. Sounds like a closed case, right?
Look closer.
Terrestrial compute is resource-bound.
Electricity, land, water, permitting… those follow scarcity curves, and scarcity curves don’t fall. They creep higher.
Orbital compute is technology-bound. Launch costs, chips, networking, space-based solar… those follow technology curves, and technology curves drop exponentially.
Somewhere in the 2030s, maybe as early as 2030, those two lines cross. When they do, compute moves to the stars. And SpaceX owns the only elevator: reusable launch, Starlink, satellite manufacturing, soon Starship-scale payloads.
That’s why a valuation north of 80 times next year’s sales can feel rich and still pencil out.
After all, you’re buying the gatekeeper to humanity’s most valuable infrastructure asset, and gatekeepers command a premium.
Now, the names the market just left for dead…
The Five Space Stocks to Buy Now
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) is the telecom industry’s counterweight to Starlink — deep alignment with the carriers who would rather not be replaced by Elon. It’s sitting on its 200-day moving average, a line that’s held since 2024.
Rocket Lab (RKLB) is the credible non-SpaceX launch partner — think of the rivals who won’t run their operations on a competitor’s cloud. They need redundancy, and Rocket Lab is the only real alternative.
Planet Labs (PL) owns the always-on Earth-observation data set that AI models are starving for, and it’s the cheapest grower of the bunch around 20 times sales.
BlackSky (BKSY) is the high-torque version of Planet — smaller, defense-tilted, riskier, and potentially the biggest winner if the trade works.
So here’s the playbook…
Fade the SpaceX rally into the August lockups, buy the dip across these space names, ride the comeback tour, then rotate back into SpaceX by year-end for balance. For one-ticket exposure, there’s the Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA).
We’re in the early innings of space becoming infrastructure, folks, and the music is playing.
We break down all five names, plus the full orbital compute math and the Kessler-syndrome question everyone keeps asking, on this week’s Being Exponential. Tune in here!
