“As long as Apple can hold above $430, it favors an eventual push higher past the 100-day moving average and early May highs near $465. This could then lead to a move up to near the $500-$510 area over time.”
Fast-forward to today, and this push past the 100-day simple moving average never came to pass. Instead, AAPL yet again ran out of steam and eventually crumbled lower.
A quick look at the long-term chart of Apple (AAPL) reveals that the recently renewed downturn in the stock now leaves it looking untouchable from the long side — at least for the time being. I first showed this chart on May 28, but updated it again today:
The consolidation phase in the second half of 2011 set a good support level for the stock, but also acted as the last base camp before the vertical incline into the 2012 pop-and-drop formation. From here, the bottom of the formation has notable next support around the $360 mark.
The daily chart looks just as lousy as the longer-term chart and again shows the significance, for now, of the 100-day simple moving average (blue line).
If and when Apple stock can throw itself back above that hurdle, I will look at it again from the long side. Until then, gravity still wants to have its way, and a retest of the April 19 lows near $385 seems to be a near certainty. Maybe AAPL bounces there, but if it fails to do so, then $360 should be ushered in pretty swiftly.
As the saying goes, “the trend is your friend.” Well, that trend remains lower.
As a side note, I usually perform a little monthly sentiment study on Apple stock, which — for the month of June — is showing investors caring less about the stock for the first time in years. This emotional drain should, over the longer-term, be exactly what the doctor ordered so AAPL can again begin to focus and react around the company’s top-and-bottom-line-sensitive topics.
For those interested in something special, here’s a long-term logarithmic chart of Apple that pretty much sums it up.