As the spring thaw has started for much of the United States, inevitably thoughts turn to summer vacation – and the charts are indicating that HomeAway (AWAY) is heating up because of it.
An Austin, Texas based firm, HomeAway is the leader when it comes to connecting people who have vacation rental properties with those who want to stay in them. Its websites offer more than 890,000 paid listings for vacation rentals in 190 countries ranging from basic accommodations to luxury rentals.
Perhaps you’ve even used its U.S. websites yourself: HomeAway.com, VRBO.com, VacationRentals.com and BedandBreakfast.com, not to mention a host of other sites for traveling abroad.
A report released by HomeAway on April 2 highlighted that in 2013 vacation home sales grew significantly with 30% sales growth from 2012. AWAY’s current technical pattern shows that the stock itself could jump nearly as much in the near term.
After ratcheting up from the $38 range to the $48 range in February, AWAY spent most of March in a downslide. Now, HomeAway’s chart is sporting a Bullish Continuation Wedge pattern, which tells traders after a temporary interruption, the prior uptrend is set to continue.
A Bullish Continuation Wedge represents a temporary interruption to an uptrend, taking the shape of two converging trendlines both slanted downward against the trend. During this time, bearish traders attempt get the better of bullish traders, but the bulls ultimately triumph as the break above the upper trendline signals the prior uptrend will resume.
With AWAY closing at $38.58 at Wednesday’s close, the upside target for the stock is $47.00 to $49.00, which is expected to resolve in approximately 19 trading days.
While technical analysis does not rely on fundamental information such as earnings, it’s worth noting that HomeAway is expected to report earnings later in April. In the same quarter last year, HomeAway posted a 16% surprise.
Strong support for AWAY resides at $38, but the Profit Scanner powered by Recognia indicates a good median stop-loss level for the average investor is to exit if the stock trades below $34.15.
Additionally, resistance lies around the $40, so you may see the stock trade sideways there before pushing through. Options traders who want a more speculative play may consider the near-the-money AWAY May $40 Calls. The other strikes in the May series trade relatively thinly, so for a more conservative options trade, consider moving out to the July chain around the $40 strike.
And a follow-up for traders who acted on Profit Scanner’s recent finding that two short-term bull moves were in the works for the Direxion Daily Brazil Bull 3X Shares ETF (BRZU), from the $16.50 where the patterns emerged on BRZU’s chart, the ETF has shot up some 28% to the $21.10 area in about a week’s time. This surpassed targets, and the current indicators from Profit Scanner show that more upside is in store.
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