MARCH MADNESS: Apple (AAPL) vs. Oracle (ORCL)

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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL) may be from the same sector — technology — but that’s where the similarities end. One caters to consumers self-indulgent technology whims, and the other helps corporations manage massive amounts of data.

MARCH MADNESS: Apple Inc. (AAPL) vs. Oracle Corporation (ORCL)Moreover, Apple relies on a constant flow of new-and-improved devices for growth, while the Oracle business model is one adding incremental recurring revenue.

It’s a comparison of apples (no pun intended) and oranges. Nevertheless, the game must be played.

Apple (AAPL)

What can be said about Apple that most people, investors or otherwise, don’t already know? Each iteration of its iPhone is more popular than the last, and the upcoming launch of the Apple Watch has been widely heralded as yet another category killer from the prolific company; never even mind that the watch-with-an-OS category doesn’t exist yet.

To the extent a market exist for smartwatches does exist though, Apple will certainly dominate it too, the way it dominates the smartphone market.

In 2014, Apple’s iOS (and therefore the iPhone) accounted for 14.8% of smartphone shipments. The Android was the operating system on 81.5% of last year’s shipped smartphones, but that 81.5% was split by a large number of manufacturers an even larger number of phones. Apple still is the biggest single-product force in the smartphone game, and that wide net alone keeps the app ecosystem primed, which in turn keeps demand stirred up for its phones, which in turn keeps the app ecosystem primed, etc.

Perhaps most amazing of all about AAPL, though, is that it’s a growth stock priced like a value stock. The trailing P/E of 16.5 and the forward-looking one of 13.2 almost seem nonsensical the current fiscal year’s projected 23% improvement in revenue and 33% increase in per-share income.

The flip side?

While the company usually remains in investors’ good graces, when AAPL stumbles, it takes no time at all for its fair-weather fans to turn on the company and torch Apple stock. Case in point? September 2012 to April 2013. During that seven-month stretch, AAPL shares lost 45% of their value after the company reported disappointing sales.

The expectations were unfair, in that iPhone 5 and 5S sales growth rates were being compared to explosive 4 and 4S numbers from a year before. Still, a large swath of consumers-turned-investors didn’t understand why the company couldn’t replicate perpetual double-digit growth, and Apple stock suffered as a result.

Although AAPL has more than recovered in the meantime, the buildup of bullish expectations surrounding the release of the Apple Watch may be another setup for disappointment if sales are anything but heroic.

Oracle (ORCL)

Ten straight years of revenue growth. Ten straight years of income growth. Widening profit margins in three of the past four years despite a massive size at which it’s tough to achieve greater economy of scale. That’s Oracle: a picture of consistency in profitability.

And, as big as the cloud has become, we’ve only scratched the surface. Research done by Goldman Sachs and published in December suggests spending on cloud-based software and hardware is going to grow at an annualized rate of 30% through 2018. It plays right into Oracle’s wheelhouse.

There’s a flip side to a recurring revenue model, however, particularly in the highly competitive cloud arena — there’s not much room for explosive growth. Indeed, there might not be any room for explosive growth.

Yes, it was only in mid-February that ORCL announced a solution to truly integrate several so-called big data formats that don’t easily work together, bringing the world one step closer to the dream of turning a mountain of information into something truly useful. It’s still not enough. The new product still doesn’t absolutely “wow” current and would-be clients enough that they see it as a must-have service that will become the gold standard in the world of cloud computing the way the iPhone has set the bar in the world of smartphones.

Our First-Round Pick: AAPL

Kudos to Oracle for making the tournament at all, but any matchup against Apple is like any team that’s going to have to face Kentucky at any point during this year’s men’s NCAA tournament — it’s largely only a courtesy to underdog ORCL (and fans) that the game is played and the score is kept.

On the other hand…

In 1986, the Wildcats entered the NCAA tournament ranked as the top team in the country and the tourney favorite. LSU, already missing several of that season’s key players and mustering a mere 11-seed, managed to upset Kentucky in the regional finals. Point being, never say never.

Let the voting begin.

Head back to the Stock Market Madness bracket to vote for your favorite stocks and check out other previews!

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2015/03/apple-oracle-aapl-orcl-march-madness/.

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