Why the Dollar Rally Is Hurting Your Commodities

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During the past few trading days, it has become increasingly clear that the impending market volatility that I’ve been warning about lately has arrived. Here’s the long and short of what is happening with the market right now…

#4 Deflation

Any time the dollar rallies — it had a dramatic rally on Friday and another dramatic rally yesterday — the market pulls back because commodities (oil, gold, aluminum, etc.) are priced in U.S. dollars. So, when the dollar rallies, commodity prices — especially oil prices — fall.

I recommend a handful of commodities-related stocks, and we’re seeing the strong dollar weigh on these stocks in the near-term.

For example, Alcoa Inc (NYSE:AA) has pulled back recently because aluminum prices are falling. A lot of energy is involved in the aluminum smelting process. So, falling energy prices have weighed on aluminum prices.

As a result, Merrill Lynch downgraded Alcoa to a “hold,” despite the fact that AA stock has very positive forecasted sales and earnings. So, Alcoa shareholders are dealing with the aftermath of that. As for me, AA is a B-rated “buy” in Portfolio Grader. So, I see this as a buying opportunity.

The truth of the matter is that stock investors like inflation and dislike deflation. Every time the dollar rallies, it creates deflation, which is why we’re seeing the market pullback.

As we saw on Monday, it doesn’t take long for investors to realize the benefits of deflation, and the market rights itself.

The other thing that is adding to overall volatility is that High Frequency Trading (HFT) systems are controlling the market. The way they work isn’t all that different from flipping a coin: If the market is up on Monday, it’ll pull back on Tuesday. If the market is down on Tuesday, it’ll likely rebound on Wednesday. If you look carefully, you’ll even see this occur within the course of a single trading day.

With HFT systems running amok, we all need to get used to the seesaw pattern of the market right now. That’s the bad news. The good news is that you can do something about it.

For starters, you should be running each and every one of your holdings through Portfolio Grader to check that your portfolio is in good shape. If you want to take your investing strategy to the next level, I’ve been doing quite a bit of “spring cleaning” of my investments to better cope with whatever the market may throw at us.

Louis Navellier is a renowned growth investor. He is the editor of five investing newsletters: Blue Chip GrowthEmerging GrowthUltimate GrowthFamily Trust and Platinum Growth. His most popular service, Blue Chip Growth, has a track record of beating the market 3:1 over the last 14 years. He uses a combination of quantitative and fundamental analysis to identify market-beating stocks. Mr. Navellier has made his proven formula accessible to investors via his free, online stock rating tool, PortfolioGrader.com. Louis Navellier may hold some of the aforementioned securities in one or more of his newsletters.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2015/03/volatility-deflation-dollar-commoditiesalcoa-stock-aa-stock/.

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