The first quarter ended on something of a sour note — what’s going on?

Well, I’d say that it’s uncertainty. Uncertainty about the economy mainly, but also about just how robust a recovery we can expect from the European Union and uncertainty about exactly what will drive the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates.

We got the final numbers on GDP for Q4 2014, and there was almost no change from the prior estimate of just 2.2% annualized growth during the quarter. This was really no surprise, since the quarter had already been seen as a weak one that followed six very strong months in the middle of last year.

Trade figures — hurt by the rising strength of the dollar, which impacts exports — were factors and will continue to be until foreign economies and their currencies begin to strengthen.

Also, as we’ve talked about again and again, the impact of falling oil prices means that not only are we spending less for energy, but companies in the E&P, or exploration and production industries, are cutting back on expenditures dramatically.

Confirmation of the slowdown in manufacturing came in last Wednesday’s ISM report. The manufacturing sector is still in expansion, but it’s not in much of one. The pickup will have to come later this month and into the summer. That said, the early reports on March auto sales showed a pickup from February to a better than 17 million annualized sales pace, one of the strongest in this long expansion.

I should warn you that we are probably going to continue to see some weak reports before the turn finds its way into the numbers. That said, the job market is expanding, consumer balance sheets are stronger than they’ve been in decades and inflation remains low — too low in my eyes, but it still means that there is little headwind from rising prices stifling growth.

Last Monday’s report on personal incomes showed that, on an inflation-adjusted basis, income growth slowed in February after three strong months while inflation-adjusted consumption fell, which shouldn’t come as a surprise given all the other reads we’ve had on the economy’s apparent winter weakness. What’s happening is the consumer, already in strong shape, is saving — a lot. While the numbers are subject to revision, savings in February were the highest they’ve been since December 2012.

Now, if we could just do something about the weather …

Also, don’t be surprised when earnings reports for the first quarter begin to roll out in the coming weeks. Oil companies, remember, are huge, and have a large impact on, say, the overall earnings numbers for the entire S&P 500. Oil companies’ earnings are not going to be good because of, again, falling oil prices. A number of the other largest companies in the S&P 500 are global in nature, and these multinationals are also going to be impacted by the dollar’s strength and foreign currencies’ weakness.

Editor Dan Wiener and Research Director Jeffrey DeMaso publish The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors, an award-winning monthly advisory letter that keeps subscribers abreast of recent developments at Vanguard, and provides long-term guidance for investing in the Vanguard fund family.