3 Things Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) Stock Owners Must Watch

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It has been a wild ride for Shake Shack Inc (NYSE:SHAK) since the burger chain announced better than expected Q3 2016 earnings after the markets closed November 9, 2016. Up as much as 17.2% in the next day’s trading, SHAK stock has since settled back into the mid-$30s as investors debate whether Shake Shack’s future is a bright one.

3 Things Shake Shack Inc (SHAK) Stock Owners Must Watch

Shake Shack announces its fourth-quarter earnings Wednesday morning before the markets open. Any surprises, positive or negative are likely to greatly affect SHAK stock.

A positive surprise could push Shake Shack stock through $40 for the first time since August 2016; an earnings miss could see it retest its all-time low of $30 hit in January 2016.

While it’s not likely to get anywhere near its $96.75 all-time high in 2017, set in May 2015, another good showing like the last quarterly report could be the start of a lengthy run higher.

Three Things SHAK Stock Owners Need to Consider

With that in mind, here are three things you might want to look for in the Shake Shack earnings report Wednesday:

Two-Year Comps

The Q3 2016 comparable store sales were 2.9%, 120 basis points better than analyst expectations. That was on top of a really strong comp of 17.1% a year earlier. The two-year comp in the third quarter for stores open at least 24 months was 20.0%, 260 basis points higher than in Q2 2016.

This is the number you really want to study because the longer trend is what counts — Shake Shack’s 24-month comparable base stood at 26 at the end of the third quarter, 10 higher than a year earlier — not the gyrations from quarter to quarter.

This will tell you all you really need to know about top-line growth. Sure, you don’t want ongoing traffic declines to eat into that comp growth, but unless that continues for a number of quarters, the two-year numbers are the best way to judge its growth.

Hourly Wages

It’s always a good thing to pay people a living wage, so the fact that Shake Shack’s store-level operating margin decreased by 160 basis points to 28.8% in Q3 2016 as a result of the company-wide starting hourly wage that was introduced at the beginning of the fiscal year should not set off any alarm bells.

As it continues to add stores across the U.S., SHAK’s labor costs are going to increase not only in terms of the hourly wages it pays, but also in the salaries for new managers added to keep up with store growth. As a result, Shake Shack expects this margin to be around 27% in 2017.

In the past, SHAK has been able to recover some of the increase in store-level operating costs through price increases. However, in 2017, it doesn’t anticipate being able to increase them by more than 2% and only in certain markets where it has greater pricing power.

So, it’s possible these margins could be even lower than 27% in 2017. Shake Shake stock owners just need to keep an eye on it.

Shack App

The company launched its iOS mobile ordering app January 23, 2017, to great fanfare, including giving away free single Shack Burgers to anyone who downloaded the app. That’s certain to have been well received by both its loyal fans and those who just appreciate free stuff.

What I’d be looking for in the press release or comments and questions during its Q4 2016 earnings conference call is any kind of details about the numbers and revenue driven by the app since its introduction a little over one month ago.

They might not have much to go on in terms of customer data so soon after the launch, but it’s certainly worthwhile to watch for. Any positive news on this front will be good for SHAK stock.

Bottom Line on Shake Shack Stock

SHAK stock has beaten analyst expectations when it comes to earnings for five consecutive quarters dating back to Q3 2015. Analysts expect Shake Shack stock to earn $0.46 in fiscal 2016 on $265.9 million in revenue, inline with the company’s guidance of at least $264 million.

I wouldn’t expect any big surprises, positive or negative, from the Shake Shack earnings report. Instead, I’d try to read between the lines of what management says.

SHAK stock is expensive in my opinion, but if you’re a long-term buy-and-hold investor, I don’t think you’ll get burned by its Q4 2016 report.

As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/02/3-things-shake-shack-inc-shak-stock-must-watch/.

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