It seems that the difficult days of Muni bond investing are over, at least for the coming few days. As we all know, municipal bonds are excellent choices for investors seeking a steady stream of tax free income.
But with President Trump pledging for lower personal income tax rates, investors’ desire for a tax shelter in munis was initially quelled. Paul Ryan, the speaker of the House of Representatives, in fact pledged to lower the top tax bracket from 43.4% to 16.5%, as per Financial Times.
If enacted, the tax cuts would simply replace the need for muni bond investing by taxable treasuries or corporate bonds. Plus, Trump had proposed to increase infrastructure spending. If this happens, munis will be forced to issue more bonds offering higher yields amid lowering demand.
As a result, the fervor for muni bond investing backtracked after Trump’s win in November. iShares National Muni Bond ETF (NYSEARCA:MUB) was down about 1.6% in the last six months (as of April 13, 2017). In the timeframe starting from the election to the end of 2016, investors pulled out over $14 billion from their portfolio, as per FPFR data (read: Top ETF Stories of November: Spotlight on Election & OPEC).
However, the space bounced back lately. MUB advanced over 1.7% in the last one month (as of April 13, 2017). If this is not enough, municipal bond funds registered $1.6 billion inflows in the week ended April 12, marking the third biggest weekly inflow on record, according to flows tracked by EPFR.
Below we highlight the reasons for this renewed enthusiasm in muni bond investing.
Hopes of Tax Cut Fading
Trump trade seems to have lost some steam on the President’s inability to pull off the Health Care bill. This has raised questions on the materialization of his other promises like higher infrastructure spending, deregulation and tax cuts. In fact, it is too early to factor in the tax cut prospects in muni ETF investing (read: Will Muni Bond ETFs Bleed Under Trump or be Contrarian Bets?).
Decline in Treasury Yield
Notably, safe haven trade like U.S. Treasury bond investing prevailed in the market on geopolitical concerns. Investors should also note that the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has slid 38 bps to 2.24% as on April 13, 2017 from this year’s high of 2.62% hit in mid-March. The Fed’s dovish guidance on policy tightening in the March meeting was also responsible for this trend (read: 4 Safe Haven ETFs to Escape Geopolitical Tensions).
This should perk up demand for muni bonds which are safer than corporate bonds and yield higher than treasuries. According to Moody’s Investors Service, the 1970 through 2015 average cumulative 10-year default rate for all rated munis was only 0.15%.
Looming Tax Day
Americans were looking for ways to lower their tax burden ahead of Tax Day on April 18. In this vein, muni bond ETF investing comes across as a lucrative bet.
Historically Munis Less Sensitive to Tax Changes
Citigroup also believes that historically (since 1980) retail demand of munis has shown lesser sensitivity to changes in the marginal tax rate.
Though we may see a reduction in the marginal federal tax rate from 39.6% to 33%, the average tax bracket of 25% for all individual holders of municipal bonds are less likely to change much, as per the source.