Here at InvestorPlace we love to talk about BP plc (ADR) (NYSE:BP), for the same reason people like NASCAR. BP stock has looked like an approaching car wreck ever since the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The spill cut the value of BP in half, and it has since made up only a portion of the lost ground.

This has delivered some strange numbers for investors to consider.

BP stock’s 60-cent-per-share dividend now yields nearly 7%. InvestorPlace contributor Chris Lau says that’s sustainable. The company trades at less than 10 times its operating cash flow, BP equity is now worth only about 0.6 times its sales, which is less than one-third that of Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX) and it has 15 years of reserves on its books.

Yet the best people can come up with for you to buy BP stock today is not that it is, by far, your cheapest oilpatch play. It’s that Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) might buy it.

Exxon Circling BP?

Exxon Mobil has been talking to big BP shareholders about a buyout. InvestorPlace contributor Aaron Levitt pegs the price at about $145.8 billion. This would be a fat premium for the company, which is currently valued under $114 billion, but it would be a snip for Exxon as well.

At a stroke, Exxon would double its revenues. Add BP’s $183 billion in 2016 revenue to Exxon’s $218 billion and you get close to the $394 billion Exxon itself brought in as recently as 2014. A deal for stock would be best, but Exxon currently has just 10% of its assets subject to debt, and even an all-cash transaction would leave it with just one-third of assets under debt. Not bad for the oilpatch.

Besides, the cost of a deal would probably include some asset sales, and raising cash would be in the company’s best interests. With former Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson now Secretary of State, any political risks would be minimized, plus BP has assets in Egypt and Russia that could prove invaluable under a Trump Administration.

But the best reason for a deal might be the Brexit. The U.K.’s pending divorce from Europe has taken almost 20% off the value of the British pound, meaning Exxon’s dollars would look very, very sweet to BP shareholders. After seven years of waiting in vain for CEO Bob Dudley’s turnaround to take effect, even cutting the man’s pay package in shame, they would be getting out with something like a profit.

Don’t Hold Your Breath

But there are reasons why this deal might not get done.

Exxon might do better investing its cash in Brazil, where the drilling is easier and the political risk lower.

Then there is the Brexit itself. British voters who were told last year the move would make their country stronger are not going to like seeing their best assets flow into American hands. Nationalism, not practicality, is the key to understanding global oil markets.

Buying BP would be the biggest risk Exxon will have made this century, and Exxon is a company that resists risk like an honest banker, preferring growth and certainty. Many BP assets would not be profitable to drill until oil passes $60 per barrel, and barring a war that’s not happening any time soon.

Any deal, in other words, would take years to finish, and the resulting turmoil within BP could leave the buyer without nearly the prize they thought they were getting.

The Bottom Line on BP Stock

BP’s dividend makes it that strangest of birds, an income stock you might buy on speculation. A deal for the whole company, or even a big piece of it, would send the BP stock price shooting upward, delivering a quick buck. And if the dividend is safe you’re getting paid to play.

This might be worth throwing some money at, money you can afford to wait for, and money you can afford to lose. The speculative risk-reward is not the worst I’ve seen. I won’t be joining you, but I won’t be calling you stupid, either.

Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of the sci-fi novella Into the Cloud, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.