The Politics of Hope vs. the Market of Fear

President-elect Barack Obama was swept into the highest office in the land this November on the back of a campaign which emphasized hope and change.

Neither of these themes was trumpeted as empty slogans. Obama was appealing to a sense in the country of a lack of unifying principles among political, religious, community and business leaders. It was and remains his belief that the voters in the country did not want to continue on a path which emphasized individual gain at the expense of community welfare. The hope he articulated was a hope for a better future for all those willing to commit to change.

Since the election, Obama has persisted in his effort to provide leadership in the direction of change, albeit tempered by the practical consideration of what can be achieved in the short-run.

He has recognized that there are forces at work in the economy that need to be addressed in order to move toward his vision of an America which provides an opportunity for all to attain the lifestyle to which they aspire.

Whether one buys into Obama’s vision for the country or not, it is generally agreed that his view is grounded in rational thought. The same cannot be said for investors’ behavior in the stock and bond markets today. It has often been said that the markets are driven by fear and greed. Uncertainty breeds fear, while a strong economy fosters greed.

While this maxim certainly has historical and psychological roots, the fears that grip the markets today appear to be impelling investors to new levels of histrionic behavior. As is most always the case, the psychology in place today has created enormous opportunity while also containing significant risks.

Nowhere is that opportunity more apparent than in the bond market. As day after day the benchmark treasuries reach new highs in price and lows in yield; when the treasury can borrow short-term at essentially zero interest; when municipal bond issuers find it virtually impossible to market new issues even with high credit ratings and a history in the sector of minimal defaults; and when investment grade corporate bond issuers are required to pay double digit interest rates to attract institutional and individual investors, you have a market behaving irrationally.

Given this psychology, a rational approach to investing suggests that the corporate bond market is currently offering rates of return far beyond reasonable default risk and should be an increasing part of an investment portfolio. I will continue in my future postings to highlight opportunities in this sector.

This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com. James F. Dlugosch contributed to this article.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2008/12/the-politics-of-hope/.

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