Miami-based Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) announced results for the fourth quarter on Thursday, and as one might expect in this environment they weren’t pretty. Still, the company did manage to eke out a small profit, and I do mean small.
For the quarter ended Dec. 31, net income fell to $1.4 million, or 1 cent per share, from $70.8 million, or 33 cents per share in last year’s fourth quarter. Revenue slid 2 percent from a year ago to $1.46 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters forecasted earnings of 7 cents per share.
Not only did Royal Caribbean miss Q4 estimates, but the cruise operator said it is likely to lose between 30 and 35 cents per share in the first (current) quarter. Analysts’ expectations were for a more meager loss of just 8 cents per share.
For 2009, Royal Caribbean said it expects to earn about $1.40 per share compared to analyst estimates of a profit of $1.67 per share. Alas, analysts don’t like to see a company miss their estimates by such a wide margin — the shares are down 17 percent in the immediate aftermath of the news.
For the full year Royal Caribbean said it earned $573.7 million, or $2.68 per share, compared to $603.4 million, or $2.82 per share last year. Revenue rose 6 percent to $6.53 billion. Analysts expected earnings of $2.73 per share on revenue of $6.53 billion.
Forced to Cut Prices
Not surprisingly the company said it has been forced to cut prices in order to lure passengers, and expects the revenue outlook to remain weak throughout the year.
Onboard revenue is also a sore spot for the company due to overall economic weakness as passengers skimp on shore excursions or wine and spirits. It had been resilient until the fourth quarter when the magnitude of the crisis became apparent.
“Chief Financial Officer Brian Rice said, “We recognize this will be a challenging year and do not expect any quick turnarounds in our pricing.” The start of the so-called “wave period” — the high demand period running from January through March — has yielded booking volumes consistent with last year, but at significantly reduced prices, said Rice.
Royal Caribbean said it also suffered from higher-than-expected fuel and insurance costs during the quarter. It said at-the-pump pricing was higher than expected because it lagged behind the price of crude. The company also said its core Caribbean products are seeing stronger demand than premium seasonal products such as Europe and Alaska.
By successfully expanding the portion of its business that comes from outside the U.S., currency issues are becoming more and more relevant to Royal Caribbean’s results. Currency issues contributed to net yield dropping more than expected last quarter. Net yield reflects cruise revenue earned by the company without some variable costs such as commissions and transportation.
While Royal Caribbean has remained profitable and is doing a terrific job with cost-cutting measures, the environment will remain weak for some time as unemployment numbers begin to surge and housing continues to weaken.
Don’t get suckered in by a low p/e ratio — these shares can likely be had at a lower price. It looks like a value trap to me.
This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace.com. For more actionable insight like this, go to: www.InvestorPlace.com.