Analysts Throw CBI Under the Bus

One of my Top 10 Stocks for 2009, Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI) is down nearly 30% today after a Jeffries Analyst cut his price target on the stock this morning.

Never mind that the price cut to $9 per share is a solid $2.50 above the prior days close and comes on the heels of the company announcing that its earnings for the fourth quarter were better than the consensus estimate from, you guessed it: analysts.

Yesterday, CBI stated that it had made 72 cents per share compared to 46 cents per share in the same period last year. Wall Street was looking for 66 cents per share. The only blemish on the report was that the profits came on slightly lower than expected revenue of $1.51 billion.

CBI did offer a new forecast for 2009 that could be viewed negatively, but put in perspective is not nearly as big a deal as is being made today. The company now expects profit to range between $1.30 and $2.00 per share.

In his brilliant move to cut his price target to $9, the Jeffries analyst cut his estimate for earnings in 2009 to $1.45 per share. For 2010 the analyst expects a profit of $1.70.

The insanity of these numbers should be apparent. Using yesterday’s close of $7.48 per share CBI trades for 5 times the $1.45 Jeffries expectation. The same analyst says that from 2009 to 2010 earnings are expected to grow by 17%.

Are you kidding me? I can buy a stock that is growing earnings by 17% for a price of just 5 times earnings? Where do I sign up?

Wait, now I can buy the stock for 3.5 times forward earnings. This is truly insane. Talk about market inefficiency.

Who are the fools selling this stock today? My guess it is the huge hedge funds shorting the stock merely on word of the analyst price cut. It is a game that is played, often to the detriment of the smaller shareholder.

Don’t panic, the shorts are going to eat it here. This stock is incredibly cheap and should recover today’s losses in quick fashion.

This article was written by Jamie Dlugosch, contributor to InvestorPlace Media. For more actionable insights likes this, visit www.InvestorPlace.com.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2009/02/analysts-throw-cbi-under-the-bus/.

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