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Some investors consider options trading to be the equivalent of gambling. That’s not true, though, as there are a number of conservative ways to trade options. But sometimes it can be exciting to do a little gambling.
Since we just wrapped up the Money Show in Las Vegas, we thought it’d be fun to give you some speculative option trades for your Vegas money, i.e., money you can afford to part with for the chance to win it big.
Hey, these trades may be a little on the risky side, but your odds of winning are a heck of a lot better than throwing your money down on a table in Sin City.
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#1 E-Trade Financial Corporation (ETFC)
By Chris Johnson and Jon Lewis
Why do casinos have penny slots? Because gamblers flock to them. The chance to win a grand or more on a few pennies is enticing. And so it is with E-Trade Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: ETFC), a stock that hasn’t closed above two bucks in over a year.
The shares currently sit about 20% below their high from mid-April (around $2), having rebounded off the $1.40 mark. A return to the April high would turn an option play into a huge winner.
Analysts pretty much hate ETFC, with just four of 14 recommending it as a “buy.” That leaves plenty of room for upgrades. Heck, the company should get some love for just its commercials alone. And it wouldn’t take much to goose the stock price.
Just a few pennies (25 at most) will get you a ETFC July 1.50 Call (ETFC 100717C00001500). A pop to the April high would at least double your investment. And we’re giving the stock plenty of time to make the move. Take a chance on the ETFC one-arm bandit.
Next: #2 First Trust Dow Jones Select MicroCap Index Fund (FDM)
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#2 First Trust Dow Jones Select MicroCap Index Fund (FDM)
By Sam Collins
If you are a convinced bull and sure that the market is going to break to new highs, then this call in First Trust Dow Jones Select MicroCap Index Fund (NYSE: FDM) may be your ticket to riches. The fund seeks to mirror the Dow Jones Select MicroCap Index, which normally invests at least 90% of assets in common stocks of selected U.S. micro-cap companies chosen from all common stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Amex and Nasdaq.
With the fund trading at around $20 and the 52-week high at $20.91, buying the FDM Sept 18 Calls (FDM 100918C00018000) around $1 could result in a triple, quadruple or more by September. But if the market fails to break out you may lose it all.
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#3 MGM Mirage (MGM)
By Michael Shulman
Let’s take a gamble on a Las Vegas casino. Several casino operators are being aided by operations in Macau, but this is not the case with MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM). They own the new City Center complex, which is reportedly having trouble renting or selling anything at hoped-for prices. And its properties saw their vacancy rate decrease in Q1 to 85%, compared to 87% in Q1 2008.
And MGM is drowning in $14 billion in debt. Short-term debt plus accounts payable minus cash and accounts receivable equates to something negative.
Look at some longer-term MGM puts and wait for the stock to stall before piling on.
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#4 Southwest Airlines (LUV)
By Chris Johnson and Jon Lewis
Flying into Las Vegas, it’s clear that Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) controls a large chunk of the air traffic. Cheap flights and cheap hotel rooms are what helped build the gambling Mecca, and they’re not going away anytime soon. This is one reason we like LUV as a leveraged play.
The stock has spent the last two months tracking between $13 and $14, and was often overbought from a technical perspective. The recent selling has put LUV in a position for “take-off,” as overhead resistance has been cleared. Adding to the potential upside is falling oil prices, which should trickle down to rising profits for the discount carrier.
We believe that an increase in travel and lower expenses will help LUV’s stock price reach an altitude of $16 before year-end. The LUV Dec 14 Calls (LUV 101218C00014000) will provide ample leverage opportunity to double your money with better odds than any table in Vegas.
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#5 ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO)
By Sam Collins
This ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (NYSE: SSO) attempts to mirror twice the daily performance of the S&P 500 Index (SPX). At around $39.50, it’s not far from its 52-week high of $45.70.
If the market turns south, the SSO Sept 36 Puts (SOJ 100918P00036000), which are out of the money, could be a winner.
When the S&P was crushed last week, this option rose quickly to $6. And if the market fails to hold its February low, it could rocket north again. But if the S&P makes new highs before expiration, you will lose everything. This is an all-or-nothing trade, so it is only for speculators.
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#6 Citigroup (C)
By Michael Shulman
Thinking you might win big in Las Vegas in a little bit like shorting yourself, and I have another way to do just that — except you may actually make some money. The government owns (i.e., we own) pounds and pounds of Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) shares, and it is time to look at puts.
The company is still a mess. It is managing to post good earnings, but cannot hide declining credit quality and other things that will only worsen as the double-dip recession hits their consumer businesses later in the year. Citi also has hundreds of billions of dollars of assets of unknown quality on and off its balance sheet.
Uncle Sam owns the stock at $3.25. It is currently trading around $4, but $3.25 is a natural floor. Look at some longer-term C puts. They may just be the best way to get some of your tax dollars back.
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