Earnings reports really slow to a crawl next week, with just five S&P 500 companies on the schedule. We’ll have to wait until Friday to find one that strikes us as tradable. The stock is Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF), which needs no introduction.

The luxury market is said to be undergoing something of a rebound, as high-end shoppers have mostly recovered from the economic meltdown. The charts show that stocks in this sector, including TIF, have done well since the beginning of July.

But the ascent is stalling, and we wonder if the optimism is perhaps overdone. Luxury accessory maker Coach, Inc. (NYSE: COH) blew out earnings at the beginning of August, yet the stock price has gone nowhere since then. That’s less than encouraging for the sector.

Up next is TIF, which reports before the bell on Aug. 27. The company has done well in the earnings confessional, having missed just one estimate in the past 15 quarters. But performance has not followed suit. In fact, the stock has finished lower a week after reporting for the past three quarters.

On the charts, the stock is looking tired after a nice run-up in July. The shares are staring up at their 200-day and 100-day moving averages. The 100-day is particularly troublesome, having rejected rallies in June and just last week.

Along with general optimism in the press, the put/call ratio for TIF is low, short interest is negligible, and 13 of 17 analysts rate the stock a “buy.” Not much room for improvement there, which leaves the shares vulnerable. 

We’re betting on weakness following TIF’s earnings report next week. Buy TIF Sept 44 Puts to ride the expected decline.

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