These Stocks are Dead Money … Unless You’re Short
When humans are brought face to face with something scary (specters, chainsaw-wielding maniacs, zombies, bad investments), it is natural for the fight-or-flight-response to kick in. Now, if faced with the supernatural, the psychotic or the living dead, I say, “Run!” But if it’s a scary stock, you’d better start fighting. The stocks on this list are ones you should be afraid to have in your portfolio. Many of them have made big runs lately, and they also carry frighteningly high P/E ratios. In short, these stocks are dead money … unless you’re short that is. So if you’re ready to face these scary stocks, consider buying put options on the following names. |
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Stock to Short – OpenTable (OPEN)
OpenTable, Inc. (NASDAQ: OPEN) scares me even though I use it every time I go out to dinner. The company offers a great service, booking restaurant reservations online. It makes its money from installation and usage fees paid by restaurants, which love the service because it reduces “no shows.” Unfortunately for investors, the next “no show” could be the stock. The company went public in 2009, had a meteoric rise up, and is now selling for 149 times trailing earnings — yeah, no decimal point. The stock has begun to roll over, and those who own it should be very scared. However, you can turn that fear into joy if you short the stock. |
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Stock to Short – Research In Motion (RIMM)
Many analysts still think BlackBerry maker Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) will be the ultimate winner in the smartphone war. And that’s because many of them are BlackBerry addicts. But the reality is every quarter, every month, every week, every day, heck, every hour, RIMM is losing market share to iPhones and Android-based phones. The company is fighting a losing battle. It is a case of a closed system going up against two relatively open systems. Think about it. How many developers are working feverishly on BlackBerry apps compared to the iPhone or Android apps? RIMM is slavishly serving its corporate customers, its bread and butter, while everyone else in the world is getting hooked on next new thing. I’d suggest that you check the chart, and check out of the stock and into some put options. |
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Stock to Short – Salesforce.com (CRM)
Like “Friday the 13th” and “Halloween,” Salesforce.com, Inc. (NYSE: CRM) is a cult classic. And just like the unfortunate victims of Jason and Michael Myers, it’s only a matter of time before this cult stock gets slashed. With a trailing P/E of 188, the stock is being held up by takeover rumors and hopes that the company can reignite growth in a zero-growth economy, which is highly unlikely. If a buyout offer does not materialize, the Street will leave the stock for dead (or at least until its P/E ratio comes back in line). The chart is not quite right for shorting CRM at the moment, but keep a watchful eye on this one, because you could make a killing when it is. |
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Stock to Short – SIGA Technologies (SIGA)
SIGA Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGA) made a huge run earlier this month from $8 to $14, after the tiny biodefense company announced a contract to make a smallpox vaccine for the Department of Health and Human Services. It said the total value of the contract could end up being worth $2.8 billion. However, a biotech analyst who has been in the game longer than SIGA has been in existence told me there is about $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion left in the pool of funds set up years ago for biodefense purchased by HHS, and they still have several other categories that need to be filled. And Uncle Sam has tried to buy smallpox vaccines in the past, granting a contract for 80 million doses to another company in June 2007. That outfit could not get the vaccine out of the factory.Think SIGA can maintain its elevated stock price if there is even the slightest hiccup related to the HHS contract? Neither do I, which is why I recommend shorting the stock. |
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Stock to Short – Netflix (NFLX)
Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) has proven itself to be a real survivor. The company’s shift to streaming video and its deal with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) are working in its favor. But that is now. What about 2011 and 2012? Over the longer haul, do Apple and the movie studios really need a middle man? What happens when the cable companies cut their own deals to stream videos rather than host movies for pay per view? Where does Netflix fit in then?Rumors are also moving the stock, one being that Apple is going to acquire Netflix. Given the rise in the stock, its very high P/E (my estimates put it at 71 times trailing earnings and 45 times future earnings), and the ultimate slowdown in revenue and profit growth, this is a very scary stock to own gong into 2011. So, like the others on this list, consider shorting NFLX with put options. |
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