Goodyear Could Put Your Portfolio on a Roll

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GoodyearSecond-quarter 2011 S&P 500 earnings hit an all-time record of $25.44. One of the fastest-growing earners of the lot was Goodyear Tire & Rubber (NYSE:GT), whose EPS popped 442%.

This tire maker’s earnings growth was driven by more than just cost cutting — in the second quarter, it reported a 24% sales increase. Here are two reasons to consider investing:

Two negatives:

  • Flat sales and declining cash — but lower losses and less debt-laden balance sheet. Goodyear sales have remained about the same at $18.8 billion over the past five years, while its net loss has declined from -$373 million (2006) to -$216 million (2010). Its debt has fallen — but its cash has declined faster. Specifically, its long-term debt fell at a 10.2% annual rate, from $6.6 billion (2006) to $4.3 billion (2010), while its cash dropped at a 15.4% annual rate, from $3.9 billion (2006) to $2 billion (2010).
  • Under-earning its cost of capital but getting better. Goodyear is earning less than its cost of capital — but it’s getting better. How so? It’s producing positive EVA momentum, which measures the change in “economic value added” (essentially, after-tax operating profit after deducting capital costs) divided by sales. In the first half of 2011, Goodyear’s EVA momentum was 2%, based on first six months’ annualized 2010 revenue of $17.6 billion, and EVA that improved from first six months’ 2010 annualized -$822 million to first six months’ 2011 annualized -$385 million, using a 9% weighted average cost of capital.

Whether to invest in Goodyear is a difficult call. Based on past performance, it looks like this company is a financial mess. However, if future forecasts are accurate, the stock is trading at a huge discount to its value — giving investors a margin of error. Thanks to its track record of beating quarterly expectations, I’d give the edge to Goodyear’s bullish case.

Peter Cohan has no financial interest in the securities mentioned.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/09/goodyear-tire-and-rubber-gt-stocks-to-buy/.

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