Dial In DirecTV Shares, For Now

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Sometimes you need look no farther than your boob tube for a decent investment idea.

Check out DirecTV (NYSE:DTV), for instance, one of the top choices of my stock-picking system this month. It’s the largest satellite provider in the U.S. with 19 million customers and a significant consumer base in Latin America of 9 million subscribers. DTV also owns 93% of Sky Brazil, 41% of Sky Mexico, and 100% of PanAmericana, as well as 65% of Game Show Network and three FSN regional sports channels.

DTV separates itself from the myriad subscription television services by focusing on exclusive content and providing the most comprehensive sports packages. DTV has an exclusive contract with the National Football League to offer the NFL’s premium content, but this contract expires in 2014, and there should be tension when they renegotiate their contracts. For series creators, DTV’s size and nationwide following provides the securest and most accessible means of reaching new and potential customers.

As with almost all subscription television providers, DTV’s main strategy for attracting new clientele lies in its limited time promotional discounts, hoping that consumers will continue with their service. There is an inherent risk of people leaving after the promotional period, but in the past DTV has been able to keep incoming numbers greater than defecting customers.

In the second quarter of this year, however, that was not the case. DTV was able to add only 26,000 customers (a very small number for this industry) and was not able to counter defections to other companies. DTV claimed it was because of the ”competitive climate and economy,” but as Morningstar analysts noted, Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) has not shown any signs of slowing growth.

Luckily, DTV’s Latin American business now accounts for 19% of DTV’s revenue and, excluding foreign exchange, these enterprises have increased their revenue by 40% each year. However, this makes Morningstar analysts nervous because DTV is subject to ”currency movements, political instability and economic weakness in the region.”

Its recent second quarter contradicts the fact that DTV is known for being able to increase margins when growth slows. When growth slows, DTV has to spend more money on premium programming and customer retention; this is supposed to be offset by the benefit of lower customer spending. However, this quarter growth slowed and competition put pressure on margins.

In addition to the stress of slowing growth and margins, DTV has authorized a $6 billion buyback of common stock. DTV has spent $1.5 billion of the allotted money, and has $3 billion left to spend. This has brought the company into $1.1 billion of debt, and while cash flow remains strong, it is projected to outspend cash flow in 2011 with the $3 billion of buybacks and will succumb to further debt.

It’s hard not to notice the changing television climate. With more and more shows being offered free online and through companies like Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), the traditional television market is morphing. Additionally, new corporations are moving in to take a piece of the television market share. Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and AT&T (NYSE:T) have launched nationwide advertising campaigns for their Internet based television services, and cable companies have expanded their high-definition offerings to compete with the specialty service providers. This may force DTV to increase its promotional offerings, cutting into their margins further.

In the long run, therefore, DTV has a lot working against it. In the short run, DTV has to fear regulatory changes, piracy, and satellite failures. Alongside this, the company has staked much of its strategy on premium content, which it has no control over.

Despite the overwhelming negativity towards the future of DTV, the stock has been doing well. Aside from a spill in July and August, which caused it to lose 20% of its value over the course of two weeks, DTV has made a comeback, and has definitely gained momentum this month.

Looking at related industries over the past year we can see positive growth in the television and telecommunications sectors. Comcast is up 25.4%, AT&T up 5.2%, Verizon up 20.1%, and even Dish Network (NASDAQ:DISH), which had PR issues in 2008 when it came under fire for subpar customer service and subsequently lost market control, is up 38.6%.

The problems that DTV will encounter are far enough removed that I don’t believe they will affect DTV’s short-term momentum. Thus, keep holding at least through year-end.

 

 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/10/dial-in-directv-shares-for-now/.

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