Early last month, I wrote that gold might finally be in a longer-term bottom-building process. While the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) exchange-traded fund now trades more than 6% higher since July 2, I also mentioned that this bottom-building process will take time and that marginal lower lows still are a possibility.
Interestingly, last week’s avalanche of economic data, central bank interest-rate announcements and corporate earnings barely moved gold, which often reacts quite sensitively to such reports.
For some perspective on where gold stands through a multiyear lens, see the below chart:
The real steepening in the slope of GLD began in late 2008, which I thus use as the beginning of the trend. In late June, the price reached the important 61.8% Fibonacci support level of the entire upswing from late 2008 up to the September 2011 highs. That is subsequently where gold bounced from in recent weeks, and the low that both bulls and bears have circled as the reference level.
In this longer-term bottoming process, I fully expect the SPDR Gold Shares to at least once retest this area around $115, or push below, albeit not in a major fashion.
On the daily chart of GLD, note that the rally off the late June lows has brought this fund into the May downtrend line, which here also coincides with the 50-day simple moving average.
Even closer up, the past 10 or so trading days came in tight trading, which smells of consolidation that ultimately could resolve with a break higher and out of this near-term bull flag formation and past the resistance line and the 50-day moving average.
A break above the $129 area could result in a first move toward $135. A failure in time to move past $129 on the upside, however, will again increase the odds of move lower for a retest (or below) the late June lows.
Serge Berger is the head trader and investment strategist for The Steady Trader. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Sign up for his free weekly newsletter here.