MGM Stock: Bet On Upside for This Casino Stock

MGM Resorts (MGM), the operator of gaming resorts on Tuesday before the start of trading announced its first-quarter results. The company came in with earnings per share of $0.21 vs. analyst estimates for $0.09. In the first quarter MGM said revenue in Las Vegas grow 14%, more than the 10% growth expected by analysts. For the second quarter MGM now expects 5% revenue growth; that too is above the 3% estimated by analysts. All in all, the news was positive, which led the stock to rally about 8.5% on Tuesday.

Yesterday several brokers raised their price targets on MGM stock, among them Deutsche Bank, which reiterated its hold rating but upped the price target for the stock from $25 to $29.

Separately, the Nevada Gaming Commission reported that statewide gambling sales were up by 7.6% in the month of March, and this allowed MGM stock to tack on another 1% on Wednesday and also helped competitor stocks like Las Vegas Sands (LVS) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) lift a little higher.

The picture on the two-year chart for MGM stock continues to show a stock that respects its late-2012 uptrend. Note that the below chart is a so-called logarithmic chart, which smooths the curves, something I often like to use for charts that stretch back longer than 12 months. On Monday, MGM stock successfully retested this uptrend line (black) again on an intraday basis, just before its earnings announcement the following morning.

mgm stock - two-year logarithmic
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On the closer-up chart, first and foremost lets notice the strong rejections off the $22.60 area that MGM stock has showed twice over the last two weeks. On April 15 and again this Monday, the stock bounced from those levels, indicating failure on the part of the bears to keep the stock down there — thus allowing the bulls to take over. All of this was confirmed on Tuesday and again on Wednesday when the bulls ran with the ball, confirming the near- to medium-term double bottom of the past two weeks as an important reference area.

Yesterday the bulls managed to marginally break the stock past a multi-week resistance area near $25, but they likely still need to be able to overcome the 50-day simple moving average (yellow) in order to sustain a rally back toward the early-March highs.

A further push higher for MGM stock now likely will need broader market participation. More active traders could already try a long-side stab using Tuesday’s low as a worst-case stop, while more conservative traders may want to wait for MGM to first clear the 50-day moving average near the $26 area.

mgm stock - daily
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Download Serge’s trading plan in the Essence of Swing Trading e-book here. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

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